HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: Mixed--CZ: Down $.005; SF: Down $.0325; WZ: Up $.0225; KWZ: Up $.01
· MACRO: A mixed trend is evident in world stock markets as rising oil prices provide support. Gains in Europe are being held in check by news from Britain that inflation data rose less than expected. ASIA: Mixed: Nikkei, -0.03%; Hang Seng, +0.46%. EUROPE: Mixed: FTSE, +0.58%; DAX, -0.02%. WALL STREET: Higher: DOW, +12; S&P, +3; NASDAQ, +8. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.240 @ 99.88; Gold, +$3.29 @ $1,224.49; Dec Crude, -$1.31 @ $44.63. Deliveries: 164 SB
· T-storm Weather: Numerous t-storm clusters result in 3.00" to 6.00" of rain in much of Center-West, Northeast, and Southeast Brazil over the next 10 days, fully ending the dry pattern in parts of the region, and turning many areas rather wet. Areas to the south receive a few thunderstorms, but completely dry weather follows with the main point being that areas of surface-level high pressure keep amounts below to much-below normal in most areas through 10 days
· Corn: CZ down $.005 @ $3.3675; CH down $.0075 @ $3.445. The funds sold 10 K on Monday
· SB: SF down $.0325 @ $9.81; SH down $.035 @ $9.89. Funds: Sold 4 SB; bought 3 SBM; and sold 6 SBO.
· Wheat: WZ up $.0225 @ $3.9625; WH up $.015 @ $4.14. The funds sold 6 K Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2016 corn on Monday traded $3.35 ½, the lowest price for the contract since Oct. 3
· USDA pegs corn harvest at 93% vs. 95% last year & avg. of 92%. Sorghum harvest at 90% v. 89% last year & 86% avg.
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.705 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 29 mbu
· T-storm Weather: A number of hints suggest that rainfall in northern Argentina and southern Brazil will remain limited beyond next week, but concerns over dryness are low given substantial fain in recent days/weeks
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA pegs U.S. soybean harvest at 97% vs. 97% in 2015 and the 5-year avg. of 95%
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 493 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Most South American soybean production areas were seasonable to wet in recent weeks with rainfall not appearing to have been too dry or too wet in most areas
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 189 mbu compared to 157 last year
· T-storm Weather: In the central U.S., a strong but humidity-starved system develops some light rain in parts of the HRW and SRW wheat belts Friday, but notable amounts likely focus between both wheat belts
ENERGY
· Higher: CLZ16, +$1.31 @ $44.63; EBF, +$1.31; EBF-CLF, $0.52, +$0.03; RBZ, +$.0298; NGZ, +$.035; HOZ, +$.0297
· A mixed trend persisted in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago steady; New York added 7/8; Gulf unchanged; Tampa and Dallas off ½; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.71 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were lower: 2015’s off 2 at 79-82; 2016’s down 2 at 79-82; and 2017’s slid 2 to 78 ¾-81 ¾
· The Dec RBOB/Nov ethanol inverse is -0.21450/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef was 70-cents lower on Monday at $183.92, and is down $3.35 compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $0.61 v. last week to $103.70/cwt, & is $23.34 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed 47-cents on Monday to $74.23, and is 27-cents higher vs. a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $25.13/cwt vs. last week’s $23.26, last month’s $20.56 & last year’s $27.54
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com