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MARKET TREND Mixed CU UP 9, SQ DOWN 3, WU UP 5

July 7, 2016 07:18 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mixed: CU: +$.02; SQ: -$.1650; WU: +$.0225;  KWU: +$.0150

·        MACRO:  Global markets are mixed, trying to follow Wednesday’s Wall Street’s rebound; gains in oil and favorable data from the U.S. service sector noted.   ASIA: Nikkei, -0.67%; Shanghai, -.01%; Hang Seng, +1.03% . EUROPE:Up at mid-day; CAC, +1.63%; FTSE, +1.29%; DAX, +1.20%.  WALL STREET:  DOW futures, 2 lower; S&P, down 1 ½; NAS, + ½ point. OUTSIDE  MARKETS: The $ Index is .011 lower @ 96.12; July Gold is $3.70 higher @ $1,368.60 and August crude is $.44 higher @ $47.87.  Deliveries:  Corn, 358; SB, 179; SBO, 518; HRW, 253; SRW, 78

·        T-storm Weather: Rain occurs today within swaths of the Corn Belt & Plains – especially in central & northern areas where a large thunderstorm cluster is probable tonight; the Dakotas, Minnesota, & Wisconsin likely benefit, as well as parts of Iowa, Illinois, & Michigan.  Brief cooling follows the last cluster on Friday, then temps turn hot early next week as another large system approaches & triggers thunderstorms across a large area – especially the eastern Plains & western Corn Belt around Monday

·        Corn: CU Up $.0225 @ $3.4375; CZ Up $.0175 @ $3.50.  Funds were again large sellers, 13 K on Wednesday

·        SB:  SQ Dn $.1650 @ $10.85; SX Dn $.1550 @ $10.5775. Funds: sold 4 SB, 3 SM; 4 K SBO.  Aug crush, +$.unch, $.76; LY: $1.00

·        Wheat:  WU Up $.0225 @ $4.3075; WZ Up $.0225 @ $4.5025.  The funds sold 3 K yesterday    

CORN/SORGHUM                      &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;            

·   &nb​sp;    July 2016 corn futures traded $3.33 on Wednesday, the lowest price for a nearby corn contract since Oct. 13, 2014

·        ATI Research: Review of U.S. crop progress show that, on average, corn silking increases 33% from July 3 to July 17

·        ATI Research: The near-term U.S. corn export model calls for inspections of 50+ million per week over the next month with a 53-60 mbu range.  This compares to 43 mbu per week last year and the 5-year average of 31.0 per week

·        Consultant: Brazil safrinha corn 26% harvested v. 21% last year; reports of disappointing yields persist in central areas 

·        Ethanol margins: $0.45 per gallon—up from 0.39 last week and above $0.39 last year.  EIA report at 10:00 AM CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        November 2016 soybean futures closed at $10.73 ¼ Wed., down $1.13 (9.5%) v. recent high of $11.86 ¼ on June 13

·        ATI Research: Expect this week’s U.S. soybean exports to be in the high teens with low to mid-20s likely beyond that

·        Consultant: Brazil and Argentina soybean crop estimates unchanged this week at 95.5 MMT & 56.0 MMT, respectively

·        Chicago July 2016 wheat futures traded $4.08 Wed., the lowest price for a nearby wheat contract since Sept. 21, 2006

·        ATI Research: Expect U.S. all wheat exports over the next four weeks to range from 17-22 mbu compared to the average of 14.1 mbu last year  

ENERGY

·        Higher: CLQ16, +$0.44, $47.87; EBU, +$0.53; EBU-CLU, $0.78, +$.12; RBQ, +$.0298;  NGQ, +0.016; HOQ, +$.0202

·        EIA estimates: crude, -2.3 (API: -6.7); Gasoline, -1.2 (-3.6); Distillates, NA (-2.3)

·        Cash ethanol markets were weaker once again on Wednesday: Chicago eased 2; New York down 1 ¾; Gulf off 4 ¼; Tampa and Dallas eased 2; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.73 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were unchanged: 2014’s at 93 ¼-93 ¾; 2015’s at 93 ¼-93 ¾; and 2016’s at 93-93 ½

·        The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol inverse egave up $.0162 yesterday and closed at -$.13610/gal                          &n​bsp;       

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY           ​ &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;               

&middo​t;        Choice boxed beef values increased 25-cents on Wednesday to $209.08, and are 51-cents higher vs. a week ago

·        Cash cattle trading remained extremely light Wednesday, with bids of $119 in the South and $192 in the North noted

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was up 6-cents on Wed. at $88.91 and is 50-cents higher vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.59 Wed. at $83.24.  July futures were $0.475 lower & are $1.665 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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