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MARKET TREND Mixed CU up 1, SU up 6, WU up 2

August 10, 2017 07:18 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Mixed: CU: up $.0075; SU: up $.0575; WU: dn $.0075; KWU: dn $.0050.  USDA WASDE report 11:00 am CDT

·       MACRO: Far East tensions continue to rattle the markets as investors quietly exist from stocks.  ASIA—Lower: Nikkei,-0.0529%; Shanghai, -0.42%; Hang Seng, -1.13%. EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -0.72%; FTSE, -1.05%; CAC, -0.28%.   WALL STREET—Futures, lower—DOW, -42; S&P, -8.25; NAS, -27.75EXTERNALS:  $ Index+.245 @ 93.675; Sep Gold+$5.20 @ $1,2808 Oct crude: +$.21 @ $49.93/bl.  Dely: SBM, 147; SBO, 127; SB, 39

·       T-storm Weather: Over the next week, unseasonable coolness continues, leaving temps 4-8 degrees below normal.  The stage could be set for one of the coolest Augusts on record in the Corn Belt if the second half of the month is not considerably warmer.  Some showers and thunderstorms affect the Corn Belt into Friday as an upper-level wave passes (especially in Minnesota), producing scattered 0.25”-0.75” totals.  Scattered thunderstorms follow within Friday-Mondayin the Plains and Delta

·       CU, up $.0075 @ $3.73; CZ, up $.0025 @ $3.8650.  The funds bought 3 K at mid-week              

·       SU, up $.0575 @ $9.7175; SX, up $.0575 @ $9.79.  Funds: even SB, SBM; bought 2 K SBO  Board Crush: $.88, 021; LY, $.84

·       WU, down $.0075 @ $4.5875; WZ, down $.0050 @ $4.8625.  The funds were estimated to have purchased 2 KWednesday                 

CORN/SORGHUM

·     &​nbsp; USDA WASDE 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess 2017 U.S. corn crop: 13.807 bbu (range 13.529-14.070),  14.255 in July

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--16/17, 2.363 bbu (2.370 in July); 17/18, 1.940 (2.325)

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. guess for 16/17 Brazil corn, 97.9 MMT (range 97.0-102.0); Argentina, 41.0 (40.0-44.0)

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 4-12 mbu for 16/17 corn and 16-24 mbu for 17/18

·       T-storm Weather: A warmer period unfolds for U.S. corn as next week progresses; highs return to 80s-90s (warmest west).  The setup is conducive to scattered thunderstorms with generalized rain of 0.50"-1.00" forecast Aug. 15-21

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for 2017 U.S. soybean crop: 4.203 bbu (range 4.122-4.346) and 4.260 in July

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess U.S. soybean carryout--16/17, 0.399 bbu (0.410 in July); 17/18, 0.433 (0.460)

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 4-11 mbu for 16/17 soybeans and 9-17 for 17/18; soymeal, 0-100 K MT for 16/17 and 50-150 for 17/18; soyoil, 5-20 K MT for 16/17 and 0-5 for 17/18 

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for 2017 U.S. all wheat crop: 1.717 bbu (range: 1.628-1.784) & 1.760 in July

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout--17/18, 0.901 bbu (range: 0.806-0.948), 0.938 in July

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for 17/18 all wheat

ENERGY

·       Firmer: CLV17+$0.21 @ $49.93; EBV+$0.51 @ $53.21;EBV-QCLV+.30; RBU+.0115; NGU+.012; HOU, +.0083

·       Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Wednesday: Chicago added ¼; New York eased ½; Gulf fell ¾; Tampa increased 1; Dallas added ½; and LA was 2 higher at $1.77 ½ per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were slightly higher on Wednesday: 2016’s and 2017’s firmed 5/8 to 86 ¼-88 

·       The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol spread relaxed slightly, easing $.0022 to +$.0290/gallon, premium ETOH 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &n​bsp;                     

·       Choice boxed beef values declined 56-cents on Wednesdayto $201.66, and are $3.40 lower compared to a week ago

·       Moderate to fairly active cash cattle trade developed on Wednesday with prices in the South at $115—down $2-3

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 37-centson Wednesday to $94.31 and is down $2.24 vs. last week 

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.14 on Wed. to $85.62.  August futures increased $0.60, but are $1.495 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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