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MARKET TREND Mixed CU Unchanged, SQ Down 13, WU Up 1

July 18, 2016 08:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CU: unch; SQ: -$.1275; WU: +$.0175;  KWU: +$.0275

·        MACRO: Global equity markets pay little attention to Turkey; e.g, failed military coup will have litte impact on the financial markets.  U.S. bank earnings are front and center this week along with the ECB’s first meeting since the UK opted to go it alone.   ASIA: Hang Seng, +.66%; Nikkei, +.68%; Shanghai, -.34%.   EUROPE:FTSE, +.34%; DAX, -.19%; CAC, -.38%.  WALL STREET: Pre-market indicators point to a slightly firmer start with DOW up 17; the S&P is 3 ¼ to the plus side; NAS, +3.  OUTSIDE  MARKETS: The $ Index is .102 higher @ 96.665; August Gold futures are off $2.00 @ $1,325.70; and August crude is $.25 weaker @ $45.70. 

·        T-storm Weather: Heavy rain of 1.00”-2.00” affected northern Iowa and southern Minnesota over the weekend.  Heat expands northward throughWednesday with intense heat across a large area Thursday-Friday.  Maximums ranging from the low-90s east to low-100s west.  Hottest in the Plains, coolest in eastern Corn Belt.  Thunderstorm clusters form along the edge of heat within the northeast half of the Corn Belt over today-Wednesday; 0.25”-0.75” of rain most common from Nebraska through Corn Belt

·        Corn: CU unch @ $3.5225; CZ Up $.0250 @ $3.5850.  The funds sold  4 K on Friday  

·        SB:  SQ Dn $.1275@ $10.5975; SX Dn $.1325 @ $10.5250. Funds: sold 10 K SB, 4 SBM; 0 SBO.  Aug crush, +$.05, $.80 LY: $1.09

·        Wheat:  WU Up $.0175 @ $4.2650; WZ Up $.0150 @ $4.5125  Fund selling again totaled 3 K yesterday      

CORN/SORGHUM                      &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;            

·   &nbs​p;    USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent U.S. corn rating could be 1 point higher to 1 point lower compared to last week’s 76% and 69% in 2015

·        ATI Research: 5-year avg. shows U.S. corn silking rises approx. 20% for week end July 17; last week’s ‘16 est. was 32% 

·        December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.58 ¼ on Friday; one year ago , December 2015 futures settled at  $4.31 ¼

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 66.6 mbu needed; 53.5 last week.  Milo—3.9 needed; 4.9 last week

·        T-storm Weather: Temps remain above normal next week (July 24-29) with some heat in the Plains, but will be closer to normal in the mid-80s to mid-90s.  Rain occurs within at least northeast half of central U.S.; 0.67”-1.33” most likely

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent U.S. soybean rating could be 1 point higher to 1 point lower compared to last week’s 71% and 62% in 2015

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 21.1 needed; 13.7 last week

·        November 2016 soybean futures closed at $10.57 ¼ Fri.; one year ago, November 2015 contract settled at $10.06 ¾

·        USDA Crop Progress: U.S. winter wheat harvest est. at 73-77% vs. approx. 72% last year and 73% for the 5-year avg.

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Wheat, 17.6 needed; 13.8 last week

ENERGY

·        Lower:  CLQ16, -0.25, $45.70; EBU, -$0.25; EBU-CLU, $1.00, +$.04; RBQ, -.0157;  NGQ, +.022; HOQ, -$.0016

·        A weaker trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago off 1 ¼; New York and Gulf eased ½; Tampa slid 5; Dallas declined 4; but LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.72 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs declined: 2014’s off 1 ¾ at 93 ¾-95 ½; 2015’s down 1 ¾ to 93 ¾-95 ½; and 2016’s eased 1 ¾ to 93 ½-95 ¼

·        The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol inverse eased further on Friday, down $.0230 to-$.13600/gal                                  

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·        ​Choice boxed beef values were 29-cents lower on Friday at $204.71, and are down $4.64 vs. last week 

·        August 2016 live cattle futures on Friday closed at $110.925; one year ago, August 2015 contract settled at $146.65

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 67-cents on Fri. to $89.01 and is 56-cents lower vs. a week ago 

·        CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.54 on Fri. to $80.46.  August futures fell $0.675 and are $2.535 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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