HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Mixed: CU: down $.0250; SQ: up $.10; WU: down $.02; KWU: down $.0125 

·       MACRO:  The dollar falls to a 13 month low; market awaits FOMC meeting and market considers Washington’s ability to pass key legislative proposals.   ASIA—Mostly weaker: Nikkei, -0.10%; Shanghai, -0.21%; Hang Seng,+0.02%. EUROPE: higher, —DAX, +0.49%; FTSE, +0.87%; CAC, +0.89%.   WALL STREET—Futures are mostly firmer—DOW, +21; S&P, +2.25; NAS, -2.00.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index:+.012 @ 93.81; Aug Gold: -$4.30 @ $1,251;  Sep crude:+$.54 @ $46.88/bl.

·       T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms affect much of the Corn Belt within today-Thur. as a cool front passes. The most probable scenario is for scattered 0.50"-1.00" amounts to occur within both driest & wettest areas.  The more rain that occurs in the eastern Plains & western Corn Belt the better given below-normal totals the last 30-& 60-days, while no rain would be ideal in/near Wisconsin & parts of IN & OH; the most likely area to benefit from rain is in southeast SD, southern MN, & northwest IA

·       CU, down $.0250 @ $3.7475; CZ, down $.0250 @ $3.8825.  The funds opened the week selling 9 K    

·       SQ, up $.10 @ $10.0750; SX, up  $.1025 @ $10.2025.  Funds: sold 6 K SB, 4 SBM, 3 SBO. Board Crush: $.89, +1; LY, $.86

·       WU, down $.02 @ $4.8675; WZ, down $.02 @ $5.1150.  The funds were estimated to have sold 7 K on Monday             

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·      &​nbsp;U.S. corn crop is rated 62% Good/Excellent versus 64% last week and 76% last year.  Silking is 67% compared to 76% last year and the 5-year avg.  of 69%.  Dough is 8% vs. 12% last year and the 5-year average of 13%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. corn crop is 164.5 bpa versus June USDA projection of 170.7

·       T-storm Weather: Following this week’s rain, agenerally dry and seasonable to cool pattern follows for 7 to 10 days, except for some thunderstorms in far-southern and far-southwestern growing areas

·       The USDA this week will begin its survey in preparation for the release of the Crop Production report on Aug. 10.  The survey period typically runs through the first week of August

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 57% Good/Excellent versus 61% last week and 71% last year.  Blooming is pegged at 69% compared to 74% last year and the 5-year avg. of 67%.  Setting pods: 29% vs. 33% last year and the avg. of 27%

·       T-storm Weather: For organized rains to return after this week, a warmer pattern will likely be needed because it would cause humidity to increase.  A warmer period is probable to eventually return, but not until at least August 5

·       ATI Research: HRS wheat crop estimate increases 6 mbu to 344 after incorporating ATI Spring Wheat Tour results

·       T-storm Weather: 90-day dryness coverage for U.S. spring wheat incomparably higher to any year since before 2012

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLU17, +$0.54 @ $46.88; EBU, +$0.57 @ $49.17; EBU-QCLU,+.02; RBU, +.0057; NGU, +.008; HOU, +.0127

·       Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Monday: Chicago down 1/8; New York off ¾; Gulf up ½; Dallas and Tampa firmed 1; but LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.78 ½ per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs declined on Monday: 2016’s and 2017’s fell 2 to 80-82 ½ 

·       The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol spread lost $.0045 on Monday and closed at +$.03980/gallon, premium ETOH 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &nb​sp;                

·  &n​bsp;    Choice boxed beef values up 55-cents Mon. to $207.46—1^st  rise since June 16—but are still down $1.59 v. last week

·       5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $0.18 v. last week at $119.33/cwt, but is $4.69 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout fell $1.13 on Monday to $101.27, and is $2.25 lower vs. a week ago

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $35.03/cwt vs. last week’s $35.39, last month’s $38.05 & last year’s $33.60

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather