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MARKET TREND Mixed CU down 1, SU up 3, WU up 3

August 16, 2017 07:04 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Mixed: CU: down $.0025; SU: up $.0075; WU: up $.0150; KWU: up $.03

·       MACRO: Trading was higher in Europe & U.S. futures suggest a positive start as markets await the release of the Federal Reserve minutes.  ASIA—Mostly weaker: Nikkei,-0.12%; Shanghai, -0.14%; Hang Seng, +0.86. EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.85%; FTSE, +0.65%; CAC, +1.13%.   WALL STREET—Futures are again higher—DOW, +50; S&P, +6.00;NAS, +19.00.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index+.154 @ 93.910; SepGold-$3.20 @ $1,272 Oct crude: +$.26 @ $47.96/bl.

·        T-storm Weather: A strong system produces widespread rainfall across most corn and soybean (and eastern spring wheat) areas through Thursday, especially: 1) today in the western Corn Belt, 2) tonight further into the Corn Belt, then 3) Thursday across the southeast Corn Belt and Delta; 0.75" to 1.50" most common across the northwest two-thirds of corn and soybeans, and 0.50" to 1.00" across the southeast third.  A seasonable to slightly-warm period is probable to last into at least late-month

·       CU, down $.0025 @ $3.55; CZ, down $.0050 @ $3.68.  The funds were heavy sellers, 25 K on Tuesday             

·       SU, up $.0075 @ $9.2250; SX, up $.0050 @ $9.2450.  Funds: sold 10 SB, 5 SBM, 8 SBO.  Board crush: $.89, +1; LY, $.84

·       WU, up $.0150 @ $4.31; WZ, up $.0175 @ $4.5775.  Fund selling totaled 8 K yesterday                    

CORN/SORGHUM

·&n​bsp;      T-storm Weather: While some additional rainfall isforecast to trail this week’s strong system across U.S. corn areas on Friday--Saturday, only isolated to widely-scattered thunderstorms are expected

·       ATI Research: Although the export model is suggesting U.S. corn exports over the up-coming 4-week period to be in the 41-46 mbu range, bias is in the high 20s

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is increased 2.0 MMT to 97.0 MMT; Argentina production is raised 1.0 MMT to 40.0

·       Ethanol margins: $0.31 per gallon—up vs. $0.25 last week but below $0.43 in 2016.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is in the 25-30 mbu/week range

·       T-storm Weather: Some waves of energy are probable to produce some thunderstorms within key soybean areas of the central U.S next week; generalized rain totals of 0.50" to 1.00" are probable for now, especially in the Corn Belt

·       Chicago September 2017 wheat futures closed at $4.29 ½ Tue.—the lowest settlement price for life of the contract

·       T-storm Weather: Slightly unfavorable weather for Australia wheat next 7-10 days as dryness persists in some areas

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports is in the 20-25 mbu/week range

ENERGY

·       Firmer: CLV17+$0.26 @ $47.96; EBV+$0.36 @ $51.16;EBV-QCLV+.12; RBU+.0075; NGU-.032; HOU, +.0073

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -3.0 (-9.2); Gasoline, -1.0 (+0.3); Distillates, -0.2 (-2.1)

·       Cash ethanol markets weakened yesterday:  both the Gulf & LA were $.03 lower at $1.63 and $1.74/gallon; Tampa was off 2 ½; NY edged down 1 ¾; Dallas dropped 1 ½ and Chicago was indicated $.0260 weaker at $1.5525/gallon

·       Ethanol RINs gained 5/8’s of a cent and were in a $.9150-$.9300 range

·       The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol spread reverted to a carry, gaining $.0252 to +$.02850/gallon, premium RBOB 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         ​;            

·      &nbs​p;Choice boxed beef values increased 3-cents on Tuesdayto $198.95, but are $3.30 lower compared to a week ago

·       Choice boxed beef values have posted a week-to-week decline for 43 consecutive trading days

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 11-centson Tuesday to $93.48, and is down $1.20 vs. last week 

·       CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.40 Tue. to $84.38.  October futures firmed $1.35, but are $13.855 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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