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MARKET TREND Mixed CU down 1, SQ steady, WU up 5

July 28, 2017 08:35 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Mixed: CU: down $.0050; SQ: steady; WU: up $.0225; KWU: up $.0325 

·       MACRO:  Risk aversion escalates in Asia; UK’s Barclay banks burns $1.58 billion FH of the year; profit-taking in the tech sector from Thursday carries over.  ASIA—Mostly lower: Nikkei, -0.60%; Shanghai, +0.13%; Hang Seng,-0.56%. EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -0.73%; FTSE, -0.70%; CAC,-1.36%.   WALL STREET—Futures point to lower opening—DOW, -41; S&P, -8.75; NAS, -56.50.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index:-.155 @ 93.565; Aug Gold-$1.60 @ $1,260 Sep crude:+$.05 @ $49.09/bl.

·       T-storm Weather: Scattered showers and thunderstorms exit the southeast quarter of U.S. corn and soybeans today.  A mainly dry and cool period follows in the Corn Belt and Delta for at least five days, while a few showers and thunderstorms occur in the Plains (beyond heavy rainfall of 1.50" to 3.00" in the southwest Plains for ~5% of U.S. corn production), but most receive less to much-less than 0.50" through next week.  Below-normal temperatures are probable for most crops through 7 to 10 days

·       CU, down $.0050 @ $3.7375; CZ, down $.0025 @ $3.8750.  The funds bought 2 K yesterday      

·       SQ, steady @ $9.9475; SX, down $.0025 @ $10.0725.  Funds: Bought 4 SB, 3 SBM, 1 SBO. Board Crush: $.87, +1;LY, $.72

·       WU, up $.0225 @ $4.82; WZ, up $.0225 @ $5.07.  The funds were in for 3 K Thursday              

CORN/SORGHUM

·  &nb​sp;    December 2017 corn futures on Thu. closed at $3.87 ¾; one year ago, December 2016 corn futures settled at $3.38 ¾

·       ATI Research: Combined unshipped export sales of U.S. old-crop and new-crop corn as of July 20 stood at 397 mbu, which is down 39% from 652 mbu at this time a year ago

·       T-storm Weather: Around next Wednesday-Thursday(Aug. 2-3), a weak cool front triggers a few showers and thunderstorms in the U.S. Corn Belt, but well-organized rainfall is not expected

·       Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate is steady at 39.0 MMT this week with a neutral bias going forward

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: Most U.S. soybeans are probable to be drier or much-drier than normal over the next 7 to 10 days, but without heat

·       ATI Research: Combined unshipped export sales of U.S. old-crop and new-crop soybeans as of July 20 stood at 458 mbu, which is down 23% from 597 mbu this time a year ago

·       CBT September 2017 wheat futures Thu. closed at $4.79 ¾; one year ago, September 2016 futures settled at $4.10 ¼

·       ATI Research: Unshipped export sales of U.S. all wheat as of July 20 stood at 209 mbu, which is 11% lower from 235 mbu this time a year ago.  Largest declines by class are being seen for HRW (-27%) and HRS (-31%); SRW is up 11%

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLU17+$0.05 @ $49.09; EBU+$0.16 @ $51.65; EBU-QCLU,+.10; RBU+.0034; NGU-.005; HOU, +.0004

·       A mixed trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago up 1 5/8; New York added 2; Gulf increased 1 ½; Dallas unchanged; Tampa declined 1; and LA was ½ higher at $1.76 ½ per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer on Thursday: 2016’s and 2017’s gained 1 ¼ to 81-82 ½ 

·       The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol spread widened further, up $.0173 to +$.11460/gallon, premium ETOH 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                &nb​sp;    

·       Choice boxed beef values fell 64-cents on Thursday to $206.43, and are $1.22 lower compared to a week ago 

·       Dressed steer weight for week end July 15: 865 lbs., down 1 lb v. last week, 858.75 for 4-week avg. and 880 last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 78-centson Thursday to $99.23, and is $4.12 lower vs. last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.45 Thu. at $89.39.  August futures gained $0.25 but are still $7.14 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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