HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mixed: CN: up $.01; SN: up $.0325; WN: down $.0650; KWN: down $.0725
· MACRO: Italy reaches a deal to resolve the closure of 2 banks; German business optimism reaches a new high. ASIA—Higher: Nikkei, +0.10%; Shanghai, +0.89%; Hang Seng, +0.79%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.80%; FTSE, +0.73%; CAC, +1.02%. WALL STREET—Futures are higher—DOW, +66; S&P, -+5.75; NAS, +18.00. EXTERNALS: The $ Index: +.128 @ 97.07; gold: -$14.00 @ $1,242; July crude: +$.24 @ $43.25/barrel
· T-storm Weather: Coolness breaks from west to east Tue.-Wed. as a series of potent systems traverse the central U.S. Heavy thunderstorm clusters result in varying areas at varying times for one week starting Tue.-Wed., producing heavy rainfall across and adjacent the Corn Belt. The exact location and timing of each cluster directly affects subsequent clusters to make the forecast challenging with time, but heavy rain is likely given numerous opportunities
· CN, up $.01 @ $3.5875; CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.7650. The funds were again large sellers, another 15 K on Friday
· SN, up $.0325 @ $9.0775; SX, Up $.04 @ $9.15. Fund activity: Sld 5 K SB, 2 SBM, bot 1 SBO. Board Crush: $.89, 0; LY, $.64
· WN, down $.0650 @ $4.5325; WU, down $.06 @ $4.6750. The funds sold 1 K to end the week
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2017 corn futures on Fri. closed at $3.75 ¼—the lowest settlement price for the contract since Dec. 1, 2016
· Consultant: Today’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent at 67-68% compared to 67% last week and 75% last year
· T-storm Weather: Over July 5-10, heat is probable to expand and shift the U.S. main storm track northward. Thunderstorm clusters would become less frequent with time, but the threat for a cluster would always exists
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 35.4 mbu needed; 48.0 last week. Milo—2.8 needed; 4.7 last week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· November 2017 soybean futures on Fri. closed at $9.11—lowest settlement price for contract since March 23, 2016
· Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. soybean Good/Excellent at 67-68% v. 67% last week, 72% last year
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 13.0 mbu needed; 10.1 last week
· T-storm Weather: Proportion of U.S. soybeans drier than normal at topsoil level (14-day rainfall) continues to decline
· MGE July 2017 wheat on Fri. closed at $6.61 ¼--the highest settlement price for a nearby contract since July 11, 2014
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.8 mbu needed; 27.2 last week
· ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. winter wheat harvest progress increases approx. 11% from June 18-25 to 39%
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLQ17, +$0.24@ $43.25; EBQ, +$0.28@ $45.82;EBQ-QCLQ, +.06; RBQ, +.0049; NGQ, +.048; HOQ, +.0048
· A mixed tone was noted in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago up ¼; New York and Gulf added ½; Tampa and Dallas fell 1; and LA was 1 lower at $1.66 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were slightly lower on Friday: 2016’s and 2017’s were down ½ at 72 ½-74
· The July RBOB/July ethanol inverse declined further on Friday, off $.066 to -$.05690/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values plummeted $3.13 on Fri.—largest decline since Jan. 11—and are down $10.09 vs. last week
· Cattle on Feed: June 1 on feed, 102.7% (102.2% avg est); May place, 112.2% (110.1%); May Market, 108.8% (108.8%)
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout +$1.47 Fri. to $100.44—highest since Oct. 22, 2014—& is up $4.80 v. week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index increased $0.87 on Fri. to $90.17. July futures firmed $0.275 and are $4.87 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather