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MARKET TREND Mixed CN Up 1, SN Up 2, WN Down 1

May 27, 2016 08:28 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CN: Up $.0050; SN: Up $.0250; WN: Down $.0175; KWN: Down $.0325

·        MACRO:  Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen’s comments at Harvard will be closely scrutinized today regarding the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.  ASIA:The Nikkei rose .37% overnight; the Hang Seng posted a .88% gain while Shanghai slipped .37%. EUROPE:  Has turned positive since the opening with all 3 major markets showing modest gains of .01 to .03%.  WALL STREET:  Pre-markets point to a positive start:  DOW, +12 : NAS, +9.26; S&P, +1 ¾.EXTERNALS: The $ Index is .105 higher @ 95.285; Gold is $2 lower at @ $1,219.50 and  July WTI is $.50 lower @ $48.98

·        T-storm Weather: Numerous systems & waves of energy traverse the central U.S. through late next week.  This makes it likely for all of the central U.S. to receive more than 1.00" of rain over the next 7-10 days, with more than 2.00" in the western Corn Belt & eastern Plains, which is also where areas of more than 3.00" are also likely.  Regarding near-term timing, thunderstorms are likely blossom northeastward through the southwest half to two-thirds of the Corn Belt today (possibly including the Delta) in the form of heavy clusters.  A cool front breaks the pattern late next week or weekend, but the exact setup will take days to determine   

·        CN, Up $.0050 @ $4.0875; CZ, Up $.0025 @ $4.10.  The funds bought 7 K yesterday    

·        SN, Up $.0250 @ $10.8275; SX, Up $.0425 @ $10.5475.  Funds:  sold 2 K SB;  bought 3 K SBM and sold 3 K SBO

·        WN, Down $.0150 @ $4.7975; WU, Down $.0175 @ $4.90.  The funds bought 10 K on Thursday   

CORN/SORGHUM                ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                   

·        July 2016 corn futures closed at $4.08 ¼ on Thursday—the highest settlement price for the contract since Oct. 8, 2015

·        ATI Research: U.S. old-crop corn export sales for week ending May 19 of 54.4 mbu were above the trade range of 39-51.  The four-week sales average of 46.6 mbu is the largest for this time of year since 49.8 million was sold in 2006

·        ATI Research: U.S. old-crop sorghum export sales of 4.4 mbu were 9% above the 4-week avg. & topped last year’s 2.9

·        T-storm Weather: Seasonable to heavy rains continue for safrinha (double crop) corn in southern Brazil for the foreseeable future, while little or no rain occurs to the north – typical of Brazil's late-May & June-July-August climate

·        International Grains Council Thu. increased its 2016/17 world corn production forecast 5.0 MMT to 1.003 billion tons

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        November 2016 soybean futures closed at $10.50 ½ Thu.—one year ago, November 2015 contract settled at $9.02

·        ATI Research: U.S. old-crop soybean export sales for week end May 19 of 16.8 mbu were within the trade range of 11-18.  The four-week sales average of 18.8 mbu is the largest for this time of year since 22.8 million was sold in 2012

·        International Grains Council Thu. lowered its 2015/16 world soybean production forecast 5.0 MMT to 314 million tons

·        ATI Research: U.S. new-crop wheat export sales for week end May 19 of 13.0 mbu were within trade range of 11-18 

·        International Grains Council Thu. increased its 2016/17 world wheat production forecast 5.0 MMT to 722 million tons

ENERGY

·        Lower:  CLN16, -$0.50, $48.98; EBN, -$0.58; EBN-CLN, +$0.06, -$0.06; RBN, -$.0162; NGN, -0.009; HON, -$.0118

·        A generally firmer trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago steady; New York up 1 ½; Gulf down ½; Tampa and Dallas added 2; and LA was 3 ½ higher at $1.79 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s increased 1 ½ to 76 ¾-79 ¼; 2015’s firmed 1 ½ to 76 ¾-79 ¼; & 2016’up 1 ½ to 76 ½-79

·        The June RBOB/June spread inverted further, gaining $.0231 to settle at -$.02350/gallon in Thursday trade                          ​; 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            <​wbr>                  &nb​sp;                      

·       &nb​sp;Choice boxed beef values declined 85-cents on Thursday, and at $222.72 are $4.44 lower compared to a week ago  

·        Dressed steer weight for week end May 14: 863 lbs., up 1 pound v. last week, 869.5 for 4-week avg. & 867 last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.19 lower on Thu. at $83.08 but is 76-cents higher vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.27 on Thu. to $78.60.  June futures gained $0.375 and are $1.95 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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