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MARKET TREND Mixed CN Down 2, SN Up 2, WN UP 1

June 21, 2016 07:26 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CN:  Down $.0225; SN: Up $.0025; WN: Up$.0025; KWN: Down $.0025

·        MACRO: Markets are mostly higher but a consensus on Britain’s remaining in the EU is by no means a certainty, according to some polls. ASIA: the Nikkei closed up 1.28% after the yen weakened; the Hang Seng gained .77% while Shanghia eased .34%.    EUROPE: Mixed with the FTSE off .07%; the DAX is .28% higher and the CAC is up a ½ point.  WALL STREET: Markets continuing higher?  DOW futures up 71; S&P 500 indicated 10 higher and the NAS is expected to open 22 ¾ higher.  OUTSIDE  MARKETS: The $ Index is .149 lower at 93.545; gold is off $9.20 @ $1,281.20; July crude, +$.55 lower at $48.82higher

·        T-storm Weather: A warm front will develop tomorrow and Wednesday in the north, generating large and heavy t-storms.  A key issue may be that the lack of topsoil moisture from southeast Nebraska through southern Iowa, Missouri, and western Illinois which could limit the southward extent of the front.   If correct, then the returning warm front may start from a position that is slightly further north than indicated by some models with a major cluster of thunderstorms just north of driest areas.

·        CN, Down $.0225 @ $4.19; CZ, Down $.02 @ $4.3175.  Forecast change to bring more rain—funds sell 25 K on Monday        

·        SN, Up $.0025 @ $11.4375; SX, Down $.0350 @ $11.2975.   Funds sold 12 K SB on Monday along with 6 K SBM and 3 K SBO

·        WN, Up $.0025 @ $4.7325; WU, Steady @ $4.8750.  The funds opened the week buying 5 K

CORN/SORGHUM                                  &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;

·        Good/Excellent corn crop ratings remained at 75% as of Sunday, 5 points ahead of the 2015 results; the trade had expected a decline to 73%

·        Cordonnier lowers U.S. corn yield estimate 1 bpa to 165.0 on continued dryness in particularly the ECB

·        Corn Export Inspections were mid-range at 48.6 (trade was expecting 43-55) with 54.8 per week needed.  Milo shipments were on the light side at ½ mbu, well below the implied rate of 4.0 per week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Soybean Good/Excellent crop ratings declined 1 point to 73% for the week ending June 19th but remain well above last year’s 65%.  The trade average was 73% with a 71-74% range

·        Cordonnier maintains soybean yield estimate at 46.7 bpa

·        Sharp recovery in soyean export inspections, rebounding from 5.5 LW to 11.6 TW.  14.4 per week are now needed to keep pace with the USDA’s 1.76 bbu export forecast

·        U.S. winter wheat is 25% harvested, 8 points ahead of LY and versus 28% for the 5-year avg.

·        Strong wheat export Inspections figue of 21.0; well above the 9-17 trade range with 17.1/wk now required

ENERGY

·        Lower: CLN16, -$0.55, $48.82; EBQ, -$0.52; EBQ-CLN, $1.30,+$.02; RBN, -$.0227;  NGN, -0.003; HON, -$.0209

·        Cash ethanol markets began the week on a lower note: Dallas & NY both lost $.03; the Gulf was 2 ¾’s lower at $1.6975; Tampa was off $.0150 and LA eased $.01 to $1.7950.  Chicago fell nearly $.04 to $1.6313/gallon

·        Ethanol RINs continue to ease: 2014’s & 2-15’s down 5/8’s at 83 7/8 to 83 ¼; 2016’s off 5/8’s at 83 5/8’s -83

·        The July RBOB/July inverse weakened further in yesterday’s trade, losing $.1134 to-.0573/gallon                            &n​bsp;  

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             ​                        <​/wbr>

·      ​  Choice boxed beef values fell $2.26 on Monday, and are down $7.99 compared to a week ago

·        5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $6.90 v. last week to $120.62/cwt and $29.62 lower vs. last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 89-cents on Mon. to $87.18 and is 54-cents higher vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.30 on Mon. to $82.92.  July futures firmed $0.25 and are $3.505 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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