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MARKET TREND Mixed CN Down 2, SN Down 3, WN Up 2

June 23, 2016 07:15 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CN:  Down $.0150; SN: Down $.01; WN: Up $.0250; KWN: Up $.0150

·        MACRO: Britain is voting today and while the surveys are mixed on the outcome, global markets are mostly higher.

·        ASIA: The Nikkei closed with a 1.07% gain; the Hang Seng crept .35% higher while Shanghai gave up .46%. EUROPE:  Markets there appear to be leaning towards a “remain” vote—the FTSE is up 1.4%; the DAX and CAC are 2.31-2.32% higher.  WALL STREET: Futures seem especially optimistic this morning—DOW, up 178; S&P 500, +21.75 and the NASDAQ, +49.  OUTSIDE  MARKETS: The $ Index is .623 lower at 93.135; gold is $7.60 lower @ $1,260.80;  August crude, +$.70 higher at $49.83

·        T-storm Weather: A few thunderstorms are probable today-Friday just north of the upper-level high in the southwest Corn Belt, but otherwise generally hot weather occurs through Sunday-Monday.  The heat wave breaks early next week, setting off some thunderstorms within much of the central U.S.; scattered 0.25" to 0.75" amounts with locally higher totals somewhere in the Corn Belt

·        CN, Down $.0150 @ $3.9150; CZ, Down $.0150 @ $4.0250.  The funds were again sellers, 15 K      

·        SN, Down $.01 @ $11.3650; SX, Down $.0350 @ $11.1325.   Funds bought 2 K SB, sold 2 K SBM and bought 3 K SBO

·        WN, Up $.0250 @ $4.25 WU, Up $.0250 @ $4.7475.  The fund were estimated to be even yesterday 

CORN/SORGHUM                                    &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                       

·        Since closing at $4.48 ¾ on Friday, December 2016 corn futures has declined $0.44 ¾ (10.0%) the past 3 trading days

·        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 30-39 mbu for 15/16 corn

·        T-storm Weather: Seasonable temps forecast in the Corn Belt June 27 – July 2.  Some thunderstorms form along the edge of the high, most likely across the southwest third of corn and soybeans, including the dry areas of KS, NE & MO

·        Consultant: Argentina corn crop estimate unchanged at 25.0 MMT.  Harvest extremely slow at approx. 35% complete

·        Ethanol grind: 962,000 barrels/day for week end June 17—down 5.0% vs. last week and 3.2% lower vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        November 2016 soybean futures closed at $11.16 ¾ Wed.; one year ago, November 2015 contract settled at $9.56

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-26 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; soymeal, 50-120 K MT; and soyoil,20-40 K MT

·        Consultant: Argentina soybean crop estimate is unchanged at 56.0 MMT.  Harvest is approximately 91.5% complete

·        Kansas City July 2016 wheat futures recorded a new contract low settlement price of $4.33 on Wednesday

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-22 mbu for 16/17 all wheat

·        T-storm Weather: Limited rainfall is forecast for U.S. hard red spring wheat in the Northern Plains over the next week

ENERGY

·        Higher: CLN16, +$0.70, $49.83; EBQ, +$0.91; EBQ-CLQ, $0.84,+$.09; RBN, +$.0006;  NGN, +0.005; HON, +$.0161097

·        Cash ethanol markets were modestly higher on Wednesday: Chicago up 3/8; New York and Tampa gained 1; Gulf added ¾; Dallas firmed 1 ½; and LA was 1 higher at $1.74 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s added 7/8 to 84 ½-85 ¼; 2015’s firmed 7/8 to 84 ½-85 ¼; and 2016’s up 7/8 at 84 ¼-85

·        The July RBOB/July ethanol spread lost $.0157, narrowing to $.0042/gallon on Wednesday.                                <​/p>

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                ​;                     ​

·        On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values were $1.07 lower and have declined $9.34 compared to a week ago

·        Estimates for Friday USDA Cattle on Feed: June 1 on feed, 102.1%; May placements, 110.1%; Marketed in May 105.0%

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 40-cents lower on Wed. at $87.79, but is still $1.34 higher v. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.38 on Wed. to $83.51.  July futures fell $1.725 but are still $0.965 above the index

·        Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Friday: Avg. trade est, all hogs and pigs, 100.7%; breeding, 100.4%, market, 100.7%

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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