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MARKET TREND Mixed CN Down 1, SN Up 6, WN Down 1

June 2, 2016 07:17 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CN: Down $.01; SN: Up $.06; WN: Down $.0075; KWN: Up $.0050

·        MACRO:  ASIA: Mixed with a strong yen pushing the Nikkei 2.32% lower—a national sales tax increase was postponed in hopes of stimulating the economy; the Hang Seng gained .47% and Shanghia was up .40%. EUROPE: Higher this morning with the FTSE up .37%; the CAC, +.04% & the DAX, +.07%.  WALL STREET:  Pre-markets are slightly lower with DOW futures down 8; the S&P is 1 ¼ weaker and the NAS, also down 1 ¼.  EXTERNALS:  The $ Index is .151 lower at 95.32; gold, $4 dearer at $1,217.40 and July crude is tring to trade h igher, up $.01 at $49.02

·        T-storm Weather: TX and OK saw additional rain over the past 24 hours. Rest of the Great Plains will dry down this week. Good planting progress occurred yesterday and today across the Midwest. Midwest rainfall will develop Thursdayand last into Sunday, with 80 percent coverage of more than 1.0”, bias west. After that event, rainfall across the Midwest will be erratic. Southern Brazil will continue to receive frequent rain during the next ten days. Southern Argentina will get rain through Wednesday but the overall outlook looks favorable over the next two weeks.

·        CN, Down  $.01 @ $4.1275; CZ, Down $.0175 @ $4.1475.  The funds bought 20 K on Wednesday      

·        SN, Up $.06 @ $11.0575; SX, Up $.0250 @ $10.71  Funds:  bought 12 K SB;  3 K SBM and 4 K SBO

·        WN, Down $.0075 @ $4.73; WU, Down $.01 @ $4.84.  The funds bought 8 K yesterday    

CORN/SORGHUM                              ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;    

·        EIA weekly ethanol production out at 9:30 CDT, 4-7 K increase expected from LW’s 946 K average

·        Despite disappointing corn inspections Monday, unshipped sales are at a 27 year seasonal-high

·        CZ2016 touched $4.16 ¾ Wednesday, its highest level since reaching $4.17 ¾ on October 8, 2015

·        Corn ground for ethanol production fell 39 million bushels to 392 million in April. Milo consumed was 3 lower at 7 million. Sep-Apr corn use is down 22 mbu at 3.419; USDA’s forecast is for at 50 mbu increase. ield high a 2.92 gal/bu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        April USDA crush reported at 158.2 mbu,  versus average trade estimate of 157.0

·        SBO stx at the end of April were 2.420 billion pounds, with the trade expecting 2.4 billion lbs, up from 2.325 in March

·        Today’s $10.99 ¾ close on July beans was the highest for the contract since it ended at $11.07 ¾ back on July 18, 2014

·        When and where is the bean export demand?  Sales at nearly 19/week are double the seasonal average; yet shipments at 8.0 mbu per week are well short of the 11+ per week needed to reach the USDA forecast

·        Meal export demand remains strong with 4-week shipment average of 205 K MT/week at a 20 year seasonal high

ENERGY

·        Higher: CLN16, +$0.02, $49.02; EBQ, +$0.07; EBQ-CLN, +$0.81, +$0.10; RBN, +$.0157;  NGN, +0.020; HON, +$.0075

·        Cash ethanol markets were mostly firmer: Chicago rose 1 ¾ to $1.64 ½; NY was 1 ½ higher; the Gulf gained ½ ; LA was steady at $1.80 per gallon and Tampa slipped $.01

·        EIA Petroleum stocks estimates (API): crude, -2.6 (+2.4); gasoline, -0.6 (-1.5); distillates, -0.6 (-(1.2)

·        Ethanol RINs were a ½ cent higher: 2014’s, 80 ½ - 81 ½; 2015’s, 80 ½- 81 ½; & 2016’s, 80 ¼ - 81 ¼ 

·        The July RBOB/June inverse increased $.0016 to -$.03470/gallon Wednesday                              

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;

·     &​nbsp;  Choice boxed beef values were $1.01 higher on Wednesday, but are down 92-cents vs. last week

·        Cash trading has been very quiet this week with no packer bids reported and just a few showlists priced around $130

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.43 on Wednesday to $85.31 and is up $2.27 vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $0.63 lower on Wed. at $77.13. June futures firmed $0.575 and are $4.02 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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