HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND-mixed: CK, Up $.0075; SK, Unchanged; WK, Down $.0025; KWK, Down $.015
· Global equity markets are mixed in a fairly quiet trade ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday and U.S. GDP data on Thursday. ASIA: The Nikkei closed down 0.49%; Shanghai was flat; and the Hang Seng was off 0.6%. EUROPE: Basically flat with the FTSE up 0.25% and the DAX +0.01%. U.S. PRE-MARKETS: Firmer with DOW futures, +22; S&P 500, +2; NAS, -+1 EXTERNALS: June oil is up $0.50 @ $43.14; Gold is down $6.80 @ $1,232.10; and the dollar index is down 0.251 at 94.55
· T-storm Weather: A classic setup for multiple areas and rounds of rain and thunderstorms affect the central U.S. over the next 10 days as a sharp north-south temperature gradient develops, tropical air feeds into the Corn Belt and Plains, and large systems and waves of energy move eastward from the Pacific Ocean. Widespread coverage of heavy rain results, especially starting today-Wednesday for most corn and soybean areas, and Thursday-Friday for most HRW wheat area. More rains then follow for corn and soybeans into next week
· CK, Up $.0075 @ $3.7775; CN, Up $.005 @ $3.8225. Fund buying of 25 K seen on Monday
· SK, Unchanged @ $9.9975; SN, Down $.0025 @ $10.095. Fund activity: Bought 20 K SB; 9 K SBM and 2 K SBO
· WK, Down $.0025 @ $4.71; WN, Up $.005 @ $4.7825. The funds bought 6 KMonday
CORN/SORGHUM         ;
· USDA pegs nationwide U.S. corn planting as of April 24 at 30% vs. 16% last year and the 5-year average of 16%. Corn emergence is 5% vs. 2% in 2015 and the average of 4%. Sorghum planting at 20% vs. 23% last year the 24% average
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.776 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 2.111 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 65 mbu; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 88 mbu
· T-storm Weather: 1.00"-2.00" of rain affects southern third of corn in Brazil into today, but amounts are limited elsewhere. Corn that does not see rain the next few days will not see rain for another 10-14 days, and likely longer
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 429 mbu; 16/17 carry-out estimated at 438 mbu
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, an anomalously cool pattern continues for one week with dry conditions for soybean harvest. Seasonably warmer weather returns next week, potentially followed by some rain around May 7
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 179 mbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 161mbu
· ATI Research: Updated 2016 U.S. winter wheat production estimates (in mbu): HRW, 834; SRW, 362; and White, 215
· T-storm Weather: After a very large weather system exits around May 3, all of the central U.S. turns cool and showery for several days later next week
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLM16, +$0.50, $43.14; EBM, +$.36; EBM-CLM, +$1.82, -$0.02;RBM,$.0119; NGM, -0.003; HOM, +$.0124
· Cash ethanol markets were firmer on Monday: Chicago up 2; New York and Tampa added 1 ½; Gulf climbed 1; Dallas gained 1 ¾; and LA was 1 ½ higher at $1.70 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s down ¾ to 74 ½-75 ½; 2015’s off ¼ to 74 ½-75 ½; and 2016’s eased 1/8 to 74-75 ¼
· The May RBOB/May Ethanol inverse is at -$.0086, +$.0017/gallon  
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values declined 10- cents on Monday, and at $220.21 are $4.67 lower vs. last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $7.54 v. last week to $126.45/cwt and is $32.72 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.03 higher Mon. at $80.18, and is up 66-cents vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.38 Mon. to $68.06. May futures down $0.775 but are still up $6.865 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com