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MARKET TREND Mixed CK, up 1, SK, down 3, WK, down 2

March 27, 2017 10:47 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mixed: CK, up $.0075; SK, down $.0150;  WK, down $.02; KWK, down $.0275

·        MACRO—Healthcare vote doesn’t materialize; markets now have concerns over tax reform and infrastructure pledges. ASIA—Lower:  Nikkei, closed; Shanghai, -0.88%; Hang Seng, -0.68%.  EUROPE—Lower:  DAX, -0.81%; FTSE, -0.74%; CAC, -0.33%.   Wall STREET-Futures are down sharply:  DOW, -144; S&P, -20.25; NAS, -42.25.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, -0.537 @ 98.755;  April Gold, +$8.10 @ $1,256.60; May Crude, -$0.38 @ $47.59 

·        Weather: Mostly dry conditions are forecast Mon-Tue. across southern Brazil including Rio Grande do Sul & Parana, with temps projected to be near to above normal.  Daily chances for scattered/widely scattered showers are forecast into Wed. for northern Brazil including Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul & Goias.  Temps forecast to be near to above normal.  Scattered showers & thunderstorms forecast through Tue. across Argentina including Cordoba, Santa Fe & northern Buenos Aires.  Temps trend cooler

·        Corn: CK up $.0075 @ $3.57; CN up $.0075 @ $3.7225.  The funds sold 3 K on Friday

·        SB: SK down $.0150 @ $9.7425; SN dn $.0150 @ $9.8475.  Funds: sold 12 SB, 6 SBM, 8 SBO.  Board Crush: $.59 -1; LY;  $.60

·        Wheat: WK down $.02 @ $4.2275; WN, down $.0225 @ $4.3725.  The funds closed out the week buying 3 K   

 CORN/SORGHUM

·        December 2017 corn futures on Fri. closed at $3.79 ½--lowest settlement price for the contract since Dec. 29, 2016

·        March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade est. U.S. corn acreage, 90.9 mil (range 89.0-92.5) v. 94.0 mil in 2016

·        March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade est. U.S. sorghum acreage, 6.5 mil (range 5.8-7.5) v. 6.7 mil in 2016

·        March 31 USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade est. for U.S. corn stocks, 8.543 bbu (range 8.280-8.817) v. 7.822 bbu last year

·        ATI Research: Analysis utilizing USDA Ag Outlook Forum average price and yield assumptions, along with budgeted production cost estimates, shows projected returns after variable costs to U.S. corn in ‘17 are slightly higher than ‘16

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 43.1 mbu needed; 52.5 last week.  Milo—3.8 needed; 1.9 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        November 2017 soybean futures on Fri. closed at $9.77—lowest settlement price for the contract since Oct. 14, 2016

·        March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade est. U.S. soybean acre, 88.3 mil (range 86.4-90.2) v. 83.4 mil in 2016

·        March 31 USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade est. U.S. soybean stocks, 1.676 bbu (range 1.627-1.734) v. 1.531 bbu in 2016

·        March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade est. U.S. all wheat acre, 46.1 mil (range 44.2-48.6) v. 50.3 mil in 2016

·        March 31 USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade est. U.S. all wheat stocks, 1.627 bbu (range 1.498-1.721) v. 7.822 bbu in ‘16

·        Dry weather is forecast for U.S. Central/Southern Plains wheat today, but moderate/heavy rain is expected Tue.-Wed.

ENERGY

·        Lower: CLK17, -$0.38 @ $47.59; EBK, $-0.23 @ $50.48; EBK-QCLK, +.05; RBK, -$.0051;NGK, +$0.042; HOK, -$.00149

·        Cash ethanol markets posted strong gains on Friday: Chicago and Gulf increased 3; New York added a nickel; Tampa climbed 4; Dallas firmed 3 ½; and LA was 2 higher at $1.69 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs eased on Friday: 2015’s off ½ to 54-56; 2016’s fell 1 ½ to 55-57; & 2017’s declined 1 ¾ to 55-57 ½

·        The April RBOB/April ethanol spread firmed $,.0048 on Friday, settling at+$.04780/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                            &nb​sp;       

·        Choice boxed beef values declined 66-cents on Friday to $221.62, and are $1.81 lower compared to a week ago

·        Cattle on Feed: Mar 1 on feed, 100.0% (100.1% avg est); Feb place, 99.1% (98.9%); Feb Marketed, 103.6% (103.3%)

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed $1.14 on Friday to $77.97, but is still down $3.09 vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.38 on Fri. to $70.91.  April futures declined $2.075 and are $3.635 below the index             

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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