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MARKET TREND Mixed CK, up 1, SK, down 2, WK, up 1

April 26, 2017 07:13 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Mixed: CK, up $.0075; SK, down $.0125; WK, up .0050; KWK, up $.0175

·       MACRO—Market awaits White House Tax Plan—tax cuts or tax reform?  ASIA—Higher:   Nikkei, +1.10%; Shanghai, +0.20%; Hang Seng, +0.50%.  EUROPE—mostly weaker:DAX, -0.06%; FTSE, -0.05%; CAC, +0.03%.   Wall STREET-Futures are slightly higher:  DOW, +41; S&P, +1.00; NAS, +4.25.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, +0.207 @ 98.701; April Gold, +$0.40 @ $1,266; May Crude, -$0.11 @ $49.45 

·       T-storm Weather: A very wet period begins over the next two days, culminating with a major rainfall event over Fri.-Mon. across much of central/southern Plains, Corn Belt, & Delta, & followed by additional moderately-strong to strong systems from middle of next week forward.  Generalized totals of 2.50"-5.00" are probable across much of Corn Belt & Delta over next 10 days, while 1.00"-3.00" affects central/southern Plains & adjacent areas of western Corn Belt, & less to much-less falls in the northern Plains.

·       Corn: CK up $.0075 @ $3.6575; CN up $.01 @ $3.7275.   The funds were big buyers Tuesday, a total of 12 K      

·       SB: down $.0125 @ $9.5325; SN down $.0125 @ $9.6375.  Funds: Sold 3 SB, 2 SBM & 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $.83, 0; LY; $.69

·       Wheat: WK up $.0050 @ $4.0925; WN up $.0125 @ $4.2825.  Fund buying was estimated at 7 K yesterday     

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn planting progress increases approximately 16% from April 23-30 to 34%

·       T-storm Weather: Best opportunity for near-term corn planting--scattered areas of central/southern Plains & western Corn Belt that miss rain next few days, & in/near Ohio where unusually mild/dry weather dominate until the weekend

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop production estimate is unchanged this week at 37.0 MMT.  Later planted corn in both northern southern locations is in the process of filling grain and the condition of the crop is generally rated very good

·       Ethanol margins: $0.30 per gallon—up vs. $0.29 last week but below $0.35 in 2016.  EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. soybean planting progress increases approx. 4% from April 23-30 to 7%

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unchanged this week at 55.0 MMT.  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicates harvest is 16.3% complete, which is now about equal to last year

·       T-storm Weather: Rain ends today/tomorrow south to north across northern Argentina; then dry for at least 10 days

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. spring wheat planting progress increases approx. 12% from April 23-30 to 46%

·       T-storm Weather: Hard frosts & freezes most likely limited to western HRW wheat in Plains on Sat. or Sun. mornings

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLM17, -$0.11 @ $49.45; EBM, -.13 @ $51.97;EBM-QCLM, -.03; RBM,-$.0137; NGM, +$0.038; HOM, -$.0029

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.6 (+0.9); Gasoline, -0.9 (+4.4); Distillates, -1.3 (-0.04)

·       A mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago down ½; New York up 1 ½; Gulf added ¼; Dallas and Tampa eased 1; and LA was a penny lower at $1.79 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were notably weaker on Tuesday: 2016’s and 2017’s both fell 4 ¾ to 40-46

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread widened slightly, +$.0066 to +$.0090/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          &​nbsp;          

·       Choice​ boxed beef values gained 34-cents on Tuesday to $219.01, and are $3.02 higher vs. last week

·       Over the past 12 trading days, choice boxed beef values have increased $11.79 (5.7%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout eased 65-cents on Tuesday to $73.29, and is $1.78 lower vs. a week ago 

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.33 on Tue. to $60.16.  May futures firmed $0.825 and are $5.065 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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