HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mixed: CH, up $.01; SH, up $.03; WH, up $.01 KWH, down $.0075
· MACRO: A mixed trend is evident in world stocks amid ongoing uncertainty regarding the recent travel ban imposed by the U.S. Trading could turn choppy later as the market begins to prepare for Friday’s U.S. Employment Report. ASIA-weaker: Nikkei, -1.69%; Hang Seng, -0.06%. EUROPE-firmer: FTSE, +0.55%; DAX, +0.12%. Wall STREET-futures are lower: DOW, -32; S&P, -3; NASDAQ, -9. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.319 @ 100.100; Gold, +$11.47 @ $1,204.67;and Mar Crude is $0.19 lower at @ $52.44
· T-storm Weather: The remnant of a cool front and two waves of energy trigger rain within much of South America into the weekend, most notably producing heavy rain in some of the wettest areas of central Argentina, bringing some thunderstorms to drier areas of southern Brazil and Paraguay, and triggering a few more thunderstorms in / near Mato Grosso. A drier period follows in Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay Feb. 5-10, but heavy rainfall occurs across northern growing areas of Brazil
· Corn: CH up $.01 @ $3.5875; CK up $0.0075 @ $3.6575. The funds on Monday sold 15 K
· SB: SH up $.03 @ $10.2575 SK up $.03 @ $10.3575. Funds: Sold 15 K SB, -9 SBM, -8 SBO.
· Wheat: up $.01 @ $4.15; WK up $.0025 @ $4.285 . The funds on Monday sold 5 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: The corn production estimate for Argentina is unchanged this week at 34.0 MMT. A week of dry weather in the core production areas has helped to stabilize the crop with early harvest expected to start very soon
· T-storm Weather: After rainfall this week across Argentina corn areas, a dry and seasonable to cool period follows for five days (Feb. 4-9) as stable surface-level high pressure passes, after which scattered thunderstorms likely return
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.374 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 38 mbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Argentina soybean estimate is increased 1.0 MMT this week at 52.0 MMT. Last week’s sun, no rain and good temps helped stabilize the flooding situation & improve crop prospects for beans outside saturated areas
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 403 mbu
· T-storm Weather: In Brazil, the 5-day precipitation percent of average throughSaturday, Feb. 4 across Mato Grosso soybean harvest areas is forecast to range from 121% to 147% (approx. 1.75”-2.00”)
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat 16/17 carry-out pegged at 220 mbu vs. 157 last year
· T-storm Weather: Significant U.S. winter storm not foreseen; best rain chance Sun.-Mon. in Delta, southern Corn Belt
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLH17, -$0.19 @ $52.44; EBH, +$0.04; EBH-CLH, $2.76, +$0.15; RBG, +$.0125;NGH, -$0.072; HOG, +$.0010
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly firmer on Monday: Chicago added ½; New York increased 2; Gulf gained ¼; Dallas climbed a nickel; Tampa up 4; but LA was ½ lower at $1.60 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weaker on Monday: 2015’s off 2 at 48 ¾-50 ¼; 2016’s eased 2 to 48 ¾-51 ¾; & 2017’s down 2 to 49-52
· The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread widened 0.085 to +0.038/gallon, premium RBOB
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·   Choice boxed beef values gained 65-cents on Monday to $193.35, and are $1.58 higher vs. last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $0.67 v. last week at $121.22/cwt, and is $15.14 lower v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 23-cents on Monday to $82.80, & is highest since July 26, 2016
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $41.26/cwt vs. last week’s $41.01, last month’s $42.74 & last year’s $47.19
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com