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MARKET TREND Mixed CH, up 1, SH, up 3, WH, down 4

February 27, 2017 07:57 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mixed: CH, up $.0050; SH, up $.02; WH, down $.0375;  KWH, down $.03505 

·        MACRO—Asia closed lower after Chinese regulators spoke on taking a hard-line towards market manipulation—some spec funds exited.   ASIA—Weaker:  Nikkei, -0.91%; Shanghai, -0.75%; Hang Seng, -0.17%; EUROPE—Higher:  FTSE, +0.14%; DAX, +0.04%; CAC, -0.14%.   Wall STREET-Pre markets are lower:   DOW futures, -5; S&P, -0.50; NASDAQ, -5.75.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, -0.030 @ 101.060;  Gold, -$1.90 @ $1,256; and April Crude, +$0.25 @ $54.24

·        T-storm Weather: Significant rain affected western and eastern growing areas of Mato Grosso, Brazil over the weekend.  Widespread coverage of above-normal rain of 3.00”-6.00” occurs in central and northern areas across Brazil over the next two weeks, with near- and above-normal totals of 2.00”-4.00” in southern areas.  In Argentina, scattered thunderstorms occur through the same period ( and especially Thursday when the main front passes), ultimately resulting in 1.00”-2.00” of rain 

·        Corn: CH up $.0050 @ $3.6450;  CK up $.0050 @ $3.71.25.  The funds sold 5 K on Friday      

·        SB: SH up $.02 @ $10.1550; SK up $.0175 @ $10.26.  Funds: even SB; bot 1 SBM, 2 SBO.  Board Crush:  0.72, 0; LY: $.50

·        Wheat: down $.0375 @ $4.32750; WK down $.0350 @ $4.4450.  Funds sold 6 K to close out the week                      

     CORN/SORGHUM

· &n​bsp;      The 2017 projected crop insurance price average of December 2017 corn futures from Feb. 1-24 is $3.9621

·        T-storm Weather: The wet pattern that began in mid-January across Center West, North & Northeast Brazil continues through at least the first third of March, occasionally slowing second-crop corn planting and/or development

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 45.1 mbu needed; 45.4 last week.  Milo—3.8 needed; 7.1 last week

·        USDA Ag Outlook Forum: 17/18 U.S. corn carryout est. at 2.215 bbu v. avg. trade guess of 2.072 (range 1.583-2.615)

·        March 2017 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.64; one year ago, March 2016 corn futures settled at $3.54 ½

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        The 2017 projected crop insurance price average of November 2017 soybean futures from Feb. 1-24 is $10.1925

·        T-storm Weather: Wet pattern across northern Brazil continues short-term occasionally slowing soybean harvesting

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 17.2 mbu needed; 39.6 last week

·        Ag Outlook Forum: 17/18 U.S. soybean carryout est. at 0.420 bbu v. avg. trade guess of 0.485 (range 0.311-0.660)

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST: Wheat, 23.3 needed; 20.5 last week

·        T-storm Weather: U.S. HRW wheat likely remains dry & seasonable the next two weeks, as is normal this time of year

·        Ag Outlook Forum: 17/18 U.S. wheat carryout est. at 0.905 bbu v. avg. trade guess of 0.969 (range 0.820-1.211)

ENERGY

·        Lower: CLJ17, +$0.25 @ $54.24; EBJ, +$0.39; EBJ-CLJ, $2.12, +$0.12; RBJ, +$.0126;NGJ, -$0.102; HOJ, -$.0109

·        Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Friday: Chicago and Gulf fell ½; New York declined 1 ½; Tampa gained ½; Dallas steady; and LA was 1 ½ higher at $1.71 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs declined on Fri: 2015’s fell 2 ½ to 45-48; 2016’s down 2 ¼ at 46-48 ½; & 2017’s weakened 2 to 46-49 ½

·        The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread lost some of is carry, off $.0108 on Friday to +$0.0108/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        ​                        &​nbsp;   

·        Choice boxed beef values firmed $2.77 on Friday to $198.96 and are up $8.48 compared to last week

·        Cattle on Feed: Feb 1 on feed, 100.7% (100.7% avg est); Jan place, 111.4% (111.1%); Jan Marketed, 110.2% (109.8%)

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was $1.76 higher on Friday at $81.31 but is still $2.44 lower vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.34 on Fri. to $77.39.  April futures increased $1.45 but are still $9.365 below the index           

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

             



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