HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mixed CH, down $.01; SH, up $.08; WH, down $.01; KWH, up $.01
· MACRO: Favorable earnings lifts most global stock markets. ASIA-Higher—solid earnings offset strength in the yen: Nikkei, +0.51%; Hang Seng, +0.66%; Shanghai, +0.46%. EUROPE-Mostly Higher with QIV corporate earnings expected to rise 15% on the Stoxx Europe 600: FTSE, -0.04%; DAX, +0.22%; CAC, +0.67%. Wall STREET-Pre-markets Higher: DOW, +21; S&P, +1.00; NASDAQ, +5.75. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +0.330 @ 100.575; Gold, +$3.60 @ $1,228; and Mar Crude is off $0.30 @ $51.87
· T-storm Weather: Rainfall amounts are increased in/near northern Santa Fe later this week/weekend, otherwise there are no changes. In Argentina, a strong upper-level system triggers widespread t-storms Friday-Monday; 2 to 4" should fall in the NW 1/3rd growing region with 1-2" most common elsewhere. Rainfall remains limited in southern Brazil and Paraguay until this weekend. Near-normal 1 ¼ to 2 ½” amounts are most probable next week. 5-10” amounts likely from N Mato Grosso into Bahia.
· Corn: CH down $.0125 @ $3.6750; CK down $.0050 @ $3.7550. Fund buying totaled 10 K on Tuesday
· SB: SH up $.08 @ $10.5075; SK up $.08 @ $10.6125. Funds bought 4 SB; 4 SBM; sold 3 K SBO. Crush: $.74, -$.01; LY: $58
· Wheat: down $.01 @ $4.2975; WK down $.0125 @ $4.4125 The funds bought 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
·; December ‘17 corn futures on Tue. closed at $3.96 ¼--equal to highest settlement price for contract since June 27, ‘16
· Weekly pace of corn exports at a 9-year seasonal high. ATI forecast at 2.3 bbu is 75 mbu above last WASDE
· Consultant: Long-term Brazil weather outlook worrisome, safrinha crop going in slowly & Mar-May forecast hot & dry
· Optimistic? Q1 feed/residual use up 4.7% versus 15/16; Gov expects a 12.5% BOY increase with GCAU/s up only 1.7%
· On this day last year (Tuesday), CH16 closed at $3.61, 7 ½ cents below the CH17 close
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· The U.S. is selling SBM at the highest January pace in 7 years, up more than 40% year to year. A similar trend is evident for SBO, with sales also at a 7-year seasonal high and 34% greater than last year
· Parana bean harvest slow-going, only 1% complete (19% LY); poor quality on some beans due to moisture
· Yesterday’s $10.42 ¾ close for SH17 was $1.79 ½ above the February 9, 2016 level
· Latest 4-week export average for wheat of 10.9 mbu/week is a 22-year low for the month of January; ATI Research expects near-term inspections to run in the 20-25 mbu/week range
· T-storm Weather: Rain likely near U.S. southern Plains Sun-Tue; main uncertainty is northward extent of totals >0.50”
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLH17, -$0.30 @ $51.87; EBJ, -$0.18; EBH-CLH, $2.99, +$0.11; RBH, -$.0004;NGH, -$0.053; HOH, +$.0003
· EIA estimates (API): Crude oil, +2.5 (+14.2); Gasoline, +1.1 (+2.9); Distillates, +0.3 (+1.4)
· A notably firmer trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago up 3 ¾; New York increased 4; Gulf gained 4 ½; Dallas climbed 5 ¾; Tampa added a nickel; and LA was 4 higher at $1.67 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weaker on Tuesday: 2015’s down ¾ at 45 ½-49; 2016’s eased ¾ to 46 ½-50; & 2017’s down ¾ at 46 ½-50
· The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread inverted further, $.0548 to -0.0845/gallon, premium ETOH
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values fell $1.27 on Tuesday and are $2.91 lower vs. last week
· Cash cattle markets remain quiet with packers bidding $116 (live) while feedyards ask $122
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 19-cents on Tue. to $84.72, and is up 84-cents vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.50 on Tue. to $71.45. February futures gained $1.025 and are $0.925 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather