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MARKET TREND Mixed CH, down 1, SF, up 3, WH, down 1

December 13, 2016 07:18 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CH, down $.0050; SF, up $.0125; WH, down $.0125;  KWH, down $.0025

·        MACRO: Global stocks climb higher ahead of Wednesday Fed meeting; China should meet TY’s growth target.  ASIA-higher:  Nikkei, +0.50%;  Hang Seng, +0.06%; Shanghai, +0.08%.   EUROPE-higher:  FTSE, +0.52%; DAX, +0.73%; CAC, +0.66%.  Wall STREET:  Up, up & away:   DOW, +72; S&P, +6.75; NASDAQ, +18.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.116 @ 101.165;  Gold, -$6.20 @ $1,157.30;  Jan Crude, +$0.42 @ $53.24.  Deliveries:  SBM, 53; SBO, 33; HRW, 46 SRW, 0; Oats, 126; EU wheat, 19

·        T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms focus on northern growing areas of Brazil into the weekend, while dry weather occurs to the south.  Thereafter, several waves trigger thunderstorms within driest areas of Argentina starting Sunday-Monday with seasonably-heavy rainfall of 0.75" to 1.50 most probable over Dec. 18-24.  Southern areas of Brazil (as well as Paraguay) also receive renewed rainfall after significant totals over the last week

·        Corn: CH down $.0050 @ $3.60; CK, down $.0025 @ $3.67.  The funds opened the week buying 3 K 

·        SB: SF up $.0125 @ $10.3225; SH, up $.01 @ $10.4350.  Funds—Sold 4 SB, 3 SBM, 0 SBM.  Board Crush: $.71+.01; LY, $.70

·        Wheat: WH down $.0125 @ $4.16; WK, down $.0050 @ $4.2725.  The funds were even in Monday’s trade                   

CORN/SORGHUM

·    &​nbsp;   Consultant: If a drier-than-normal weather pattern persists in Argentina for the second half of December and first half of January, some of the intended corn acreage may not get planted 

·        T-storm Weather: Except for a thunderstorm or two today, dry weather continues through Sat. for Argentina corn.  Temperatures initially stay seasonable to cool, but turn hot starting Thu.-Fri. as maximums soar well into the 90s

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.539 bbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 29 mbu 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Consultant: Nationwide Brazilian soybean harvest estimate left unchanged this week at 101.0 MMT

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 482 mbu

·        T-storm Weather: Near-normal rainfall is probable across much of Brazil (and Paraguay) soybean areas through 10 days with wet weather in the north this week, then the south next week

·        ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at1200mbu compared to 272 last year

·        T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a strong system spins up Friday-Saturday, leading to areas of rain, snow, and ice – but mainly to the east of HRW wheat in the central and southern Plains

ENERGY

·        Firmer:  CLF17, +$0.42 @ $53.24; EBG, +$0.36;  EBG-CLF, $2.88, +$0.02; RBF, +$.0160; NGF, -$.008; HOF, +$.0033

·        Sharp gains were noted in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago jumped 11 ¾; New York added 7 1/8; Gulf climbed 7; Tampa rose 4; Dallas gained 3; and LA was 6 higher at $1.94 per gallon 

·        Ethanol RINs rebounded slightly: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s all increased 1 ½ to 80-85

·        The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol inverse continues to widen, up $.0343 to  -$0.21000/gallon         

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp; 

·        Choice boxed beef values were 62-cents higher on Monday at $189.56, but are down $1.83 vs. a week ago  

·        5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $4.51 v. last week to $109.52/cwt, and is $8.63 lower vs. last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass gained 46-cents on Monday to $75.89, and is $2.36 higher compared to last week 

·        Current nearby board hog crush value is $41.13/cwt vs. last week’s $37.75, last month’s $39.28 & last year’s $42.06     

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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