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MARKET TREND Lower CZ Down 2, SX Down 4, WZ Down 3

September 16, 2016 07:57 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Lower--CZ: Down $.0150;  SX: Down $.0150; WZ: Down $.01; KWZ: Down $.0075

·        MACRO: CPI & Consumer Sentiment out this morning with possible Fed implications; doubtful any changes will occur at next week’s meeting.    ASIA:  higher—Nikkei, +.70%; Hang Seng & Shanghai, closed.   EUROPE:  Lower --CAC, -1.04%; DAX, -1.04%; FTSE, -.16%.   WALL STREET: Futures are lower—DOW, -79; S&P, -10;  NAS, -16.75.   EXTERNALS:  $ Index, +.197 @ 95.85; Gold, -$3.10 @ $1,310.90; Oct Crude, -$.72 @ $43.19/barrel. 

·         T-Storm Weather: A large system triggers a 24- to 36-hour period of showers and thunderstorms in most areas through Saturday as it wobbles eastward, resulting in generalized rainfall of 0.67” to 1.33” in most of the central U.S. (except western HRW wheat areas of the Central Plains).  Four to five days of drying immediately follow.  Temperatures fluctuate within a mild to unseasonably-mild range through 7 to 10 days as maximums in the 70s-80s-90s coincide with minimums in the 50s-60s

·        Corn: CZ Down $.0150 @ $3.2850; CH Down $.0150 @ $3.3875.  The funds sold 6 K on Thursday

·        SB:  SX Down $.0150 @ $9.49; SF Down $.01 @ $9.5475.   Funds: Bought 2 SB, 1 SBM; 3 SBO.  Oct crush, $.78 -$.03; LY: $1.02

·        Wheat:  WZ Down $.01 @$3.9850; WH Down $.01 $4.2125.  Fund selling was estimated at 3 K yesterday     

CORN/SORGHUM

·        December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.30 on Thursday.  One year ago, December 2015 corn settled at $3.79 ¾

·        T-storm Weather: After rain today-Sat. and several days of drying, the most likely scenario for another round of rain (0.67”-1.33”) to affect much of the U.S. Plains and northwest half to two-thirds of the Corn Belt is within Sep. 21-25

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales for 2016/17 for the week ending Sep. 8 of 27.7 mbu were below the trade range of 31-43, but above last year’s total of 21.0.  Sorghum sales for 2016/17 were 3.5 mbu compared to 0.1 last year

·        Consultant: Corn planting begins this month in north-central and eastern Argentina and progresses southward depending on soil temperatures.  Last year by the end of September, 7% of the corn had been planted in Argentina

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        November 2016 soybean futures closed at $9.50 ½ on Thu.  One year ago, November 2015 beans settled at $8.84 ½

·        U.S. soybean export sales for 2016/17 for week end Sep. 8: 37.4 mbu, which was within the trade range of 33-44

·        T-storm Weather: A cooler period for U.S. soybeans likely begins late next weekend or shortly thereafter (Sep. 24-27) as maximums return to the 60s-70s & minimums dip into the 30s-40s; an unseasonably cool air mass is not expected

·        T-storm Weather: Most S. America wheat is dry for at least a week; better rain chances for Argentina next weekend

·        ATI Research: U.S. wheat export sales for 2016/17 for week end Sep. 8: 14.8 mbu were within trade range of 13-20

ENERGY

·        Lower:  CLV16, -$.72, $43.19; EBX,-$0.87; EBX-CLV, $2.534, -$.15; RBV, +.0054; NGV, -.038; HOV, -$.0166

·        Cash ethanol markets were steady to lower on Thursday: Chicago down ½; New York and Dallas eased 1; Gulf off ¼;  Tampa unchanged; and LA was 1 lower at $1.68 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs unchanged: 2014’s at 88-88 ¾; 2015’s at 88-88 ¾; and 2016’s at 87 ¾-88 ½

·        The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread lost $.0767 yesterday, dropping to-.06680/gallon  

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;           

·     &nb​sp;  Choice boxed beef values firmed 47-cents on Thursday to $186.27, but are still down $2.87 vs. last week

·        Dressed steer weight week end Sep. 3: 898 lbs., up 2 pounds v. last week, 890.5 for the 4-week avg. & 914 last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 81-cents on Thursday to $79.53, and is $1.03 lower vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index $0.24 lower on Thu. at $63.59.  October futures up $0.225 but are still $8.44 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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