HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Lower--CZ: Down $.02; SX: Down $.0375; WZ: Down $.0250; KWZ: Down $.03
· MACRO: BOJ confirms commitment to “aggressive easing” until inflation >2%, but there are naysayers. ASIA: Slightly lower—Nikkei, +1.91%; Shanghai, +.08%; Hang Seng, +.59%. EUROPE: Higher, CAC, +1.28%; FTSE, +.39%; DAX, +1.55%. WALL STREET: Pre-markets on the plus side—DOW Futures, +68; S&P, +8.50; NAS, +24.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.061 @ 95.915; Gold, +$5.80 @ $1,319.80; Nov Crude, +$.93 @ $44.97/barrel.
· T-Storm Weather: A strong thunderstorm cluster erupts across the northwest third of the U.S. Corn Belt today into Thursday, resulting in heavy rain. A large upper-level system then slowly passes Thu.-Sun. and produces additional rain across the northern Plains. Dry and very warm to hot weather continue to the immediate south with maximum temperatures reaching the 80s-90s, which is more typical of August than September. The central and southern Plains stay dry and hot into the weekend
· Corn: CZ Down $.02 @ $3.3850; CH Down $.0150 @ $3.4925. Fund buying totaled 6 K on Tuesday
· SB: SX Down $.0375 @ $9.86; SF Down $.0325 @ $9.9150 Funds: Bought 7 SB, 7 SBO; 2 SBM. Oct crush, $.71 -$.04; LY: $0.98
· Wheat: WZ Down $.0250 @ $4.0350; WH Down $.0250 @ $4.2425. The funds again bought 2 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: U.S. corn crop had a remarkable run; percentage rated good/excellent essentially unchanged all season
· T-storm Weather: It appears very likely for U.S. corn maturation and harvesting to rapidly advance through the end of the month across the Delta and southeast half of the Corn Belt
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports forecast to run in 45-55 mbu per week range; sorghum estimated at 2.0
· ATI Research: On average, an additional 7% of U.S. corn is harvested from Sep. 18-25; would boost 2016 total to 16%
· Ethanol margins: $0.30 per gallon—unchanged from last week but below $0.46 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Ample soil moisture in the U.S. Midwest since early August to result in large soybean seed size and will compensate for the lower pod count this year
· T-storm Weather: Despite some cooling next week across U.S. soybean areas, a killing frost or freeze is not expected
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are expected to average 40-50 mbu per week vs. 34.2 last year
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to range from 20-25 mbu over the next 4 weeks vs. 15.9 last year
· T-storm Weather: Parts of Argentina’s winter wheat belt could remain drier than ideal over the next week
ENERGY
· Higher: CLX16, +$.93, $44.97; EBX,+$0.91; EBX-CLX, $1.83, $.00; RBX, +.0355; NGX, +.025; HOX, +$.0227
· EIA estimates: crude, +3.3 (API: -7.5); Gasoline, -0.3 (-2.5); Distillates, +0.1 (+1.4)
· Cash ethanol markets were lower on Tuesday: Chicago off ¾; New York eased ¼; Gulf down 2 ¼; Dallas fell ¾; Tampa declined 2; and LA was 1 ¼ lower at $1.65 ¾ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs steady: 2014’s unchanged at 87 ¼-87 ¾; 2015’s unch at 87 ¼-87 ¾; and 2016’s unch at 87-87 ½
· The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol inverse strengthened $.0402 to -.11540/gallon on Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values eased 5-cents on Tuesday to $185.50, and are down $1.12 vs. a week ago
· Estimates for Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Sep 1 on feed, 101.2%; Aug placement, 112.9%; Marketed in Aug 117.2%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 91-cents Tue. to $80.56, but is still down 31-cents v. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index $0.59 lower on Tue. at $61.61. October futures up $0.625 but are still $6.06 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather