HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: Lower--CZ: Down $.0175; SX: Down $.01; WZ: Down $.0150; KWZ: Down $.0075
· MACRO: Overseas markets are higher this morning—Chinese manufacturing activity reached a 2 year high. ASIA: Nikkei, +0.10%; Shanghai, +0.69%; Hang Seng, +0.93%. EUROPE: Positive at the moment with FTSE, +0.28%; DAX, +0.23%; CAC, +0.20%. WALL STREET: Futures are again positive--DOW, +42; S&P, +6.50; NASDAQ, +12.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.242 @ 98.180; Gold, +$11.30 @ $1,84.50; Dec Crude, -$0.14 @ $46.72. Deliveries: 0 SB, 0 ethanol
· Weather: Dry weather is forecast for the entire Corn Belt through most of today, although changes begin tonight when light to moderate rain or showers develop through eastern and southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some heavier amounts develop in the East during Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Heaviest amounts should favor northern and western areas. Temperatures for all areas remain above to well above normal this week
· Corn: CZ Down $.0175 @ $3.53; CH Down $.0175 @ $3.61. The funds sold 3 K to begin the week
· SB: SX Down $.01 @ $10.0125; SF Down $.0075 @ $10.11. Funds: even SB; sold 1 SBM; 3 SBO. Z/X crush, $.80, -$.07; LY: $0.96
· Wheat: WZ Down $.0150 @ $4.1475; WH Down $.0125 @ $4.3250. The funds bought 5 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· The final 2016 crop insurance harvest price for December 2016 corn futures is $3.4949
· USDA pegs corn harvest at 75% vs. 82% last year & avg. of 75%. Sorghum harvest at 76% v. 77% last year & 68% avg.
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.533 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 37 mbu
· South America weather: Full-season corn planting in far southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul) may be slowed by rain and heavy thunderstorms today. Planting 74% complete but some may need to be re-planted due to excessive rains
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· The final 2016 crop insurance harvest price for November 2016 soybean futures is $9.7537
· USDA pegs U.S. soybean harvest at 87% vs. 91% in 2015 and the 5-year avg. of 85%
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 426 mbu
· South America weather: A few light showers with locally heavier amounts may impact soybean planting in Mato Grosso, Brazil today. Rain to favor eastern/northern areas. Planting 67% complete or approx. twice as fast as 2015
· ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 210 mbu compared to 272 last year
· Updated NWS monthly forecast for October forecasting a continuation of drought conditions for U.S. Delta wheat
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLZ16, -$.14 @ $46.72; EBF, +$.04; EBFZ-CLZ, $1.97, +$0.22; RBZ, +$.1453; NGZ, -$.024; HOZ, +$.0515
· A mixed tone was evident in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago down 1 ½; New York eased a penny; Gulf declined 1 ¼; Tampa gained ½; Dallas off ½; and LA was unchanged at $1.80 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs declined: 2014’s down 3/8 at 89 ½-90 ¼; 2015’s off 3/8 at 89 ½-90 ¼; and 2016’s slid 5/8 to 89 ½-90 ¼
· The Dec RBOB/Nov ethanol inverse gained nearly a penny on Monday, increasing to -0.18550/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef was $1.65 higher on Monday at $184.76, and is up $3.78 from a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $4.91 v. last week to $104.15/cwt, but is $32.07 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained $1.02 on Monday to $73.46, and is $1.37 higher compared to last week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $23.64/cwt vs. last week’s $18.89, last month’s $20.16 & last year’s $31.40
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN