HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND--Lower: CZ, down $.02; SF, down $.07; WZ, down $.0325; KWZ, down $.0525
· MACRO: Global equities mixed ahead of Wednesday’s OPEC meeting; Italian constitutional vote scheduled for Dec 4th. ASIA: Nikkei, -0.27%; Hang Seng, -0.41%; Shanghai, +0.19%. EUROPE: Mostly higher: FTSE, -0.60%; DAX, +0.13%; CAC, +0.59%. Wall STREET: Futures point to a higher opening: DOW, +29; S&P, +4.00; NASDAQ, -+8.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.033 @ 101.335; Gold, -$4.90 @ $1,185.90; Dec Crude, -$0.83 @ $46.25
· T-storm Weather: Occasional thunderstorms affect Brazil and Paraguay this week as a cool front moves northward and dissipates, then again next week when another cool front passes. Some areas of southern Brazil would benefit from rain, and upcoming rainfall is probable to at least stabilize drying in southern areas, while keeping northern areas adequately moist. In Argentina, dry and seasonable to cool weather continue through at least Thursday, allowing soybean planting to resume.
· Corn: CZ down $.02 @ $3.4650; CH, down $.0225 @ $3.56. The funds opened the week selling 2 K
· SB: SF down $.07 @ $10.49; SH, down $.07 @ $10.5750. Funds—bot 9 S, 6 SM, Sold 1 BO. Board Crush: $.73, +.013; LY, $.71
· Wheat: WZ down $.0325 @ $3.8625; WH down $.03 @ $4.1350. The funds sold 3K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: There were some very welcome rains over the last few days across corn in southern Brazil so it is probably too early to judge the eventual impact on yields from the drier than normal weather during most of November
· USDA pegs corn harvest in Michigan at 88% vs. 95% last year and the 5-year avg. of 90%. Corn harvest in Wisconsin is 96% vs. 95% last year and the avg. of 90%. U.S. sorghum harvest estimated at 96% v. 97% last year and the 96% avg.
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.605 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 29 mbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: If weather cooperates, as much as 25% of the soybean crop in Mato Grosso, Brazil could be harvested by the end of January vs. ~10% in a normal year. As a result, soybean exports could start much earlier than normal
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 483 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Rainfall thus far in November has been near-normal (as a whole) within key soybean areas of Argentina and Brazil. Northern soybean areas of Brazil have been wet, but not by an unusual margin
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 597 mbu compared to 446 last year
· T-storm Weather: Heavy rain will move east today and break drought for SRW wheat in eastern Corn Belt, Delta & SE
ENERGY
· Lower: CLF16, -$.83 @ $46.25; EBF, -$0.62; EBF-CLF, $144, +$0.27; RBF, -$.0148; NGF, +$.147; HOF, -$.0241
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Monday compared to last Wednesday (last report): Chicago down ¼; New York steady; Gulf off 1; Dallas up 2 ½; Tampa gained 1 ¾; but LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.81 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs posted strong gains vs. last Wednesday: 2015’s, 2016 and 2017’s were all 6 ¼ higher at 95-100
· The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol inverse was $.03 lower on Monday at -$0.20330/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
· Choice boxed beef values were 36-cents higher on Monday at $188.00, and are up $2.32 compared to a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $3.14 v. last week to $111.05/cwt, but is $15.92 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained $1.10 on Monday to $74.12 and is up $1.36 vs. last week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $26.76/cwt vs. last week’s $24.58, last month’s $23.64 & last year’s $28.34
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather