HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: Lower--CZ: Down $.0125; SX: Unch; WZ: Down $.0250; KWZ: Down $.0050
· MACRO: Global equities “struggle” despite solid gains on Wall Street. ASIA: Up slightly-- Nikkei, +0.21%; Shanghai, +0.05%; Hang Seng, -1.38%. EUROPE: Lower--FTSE, -0.11%; DAX, -0.15%; CAC, -0.09%. WALL STREET: Futures are mixed with DOW, +15; S&P, +1.5; NASDAQ, -2.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.172 @ 97.725; Gold, +$8.00 @ $1,270.90; Nov Crude, +$0.67 @ $50.96
· T-Storm Weather: Central U.S. temperatures cool through Thursday, then warm from southwest to northeast Friday-Saturday as a seasonable to mild pattern re-develops. Some rain affects the Delta and southeast Corn Belt as cooler air passes Wednesday-Thursday, but only briefly slows corn / soybean harvesting and wheat planting given ~80% of U.S. corn and winter wheat production were drier than normal over the last week. Better rain chances gradually develop later next week and / or weekend, especially east of the Plains
· Corn: CZ Down $.0125 @ $3.5250; CH Down $.0125 @ $3.6225. The funds sold 1 K on Tuesday
· SB: SX Unch @ $9.7250; SF Down $.0025 @ $9.81. Funds: Sold 2 K SB, 3 SBO; 0 SBM. Z/X crush, $.81, +$.02; LY: $1.02
· Wheat: WZ Down $.0225 @ $4.1775; WH Down $.02 @ $4.38. The funds sold 2 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: There will be one more monthly USDA corn crop est. in November and then the year-end Crop Production Summary in January. Decline of 1.0-1.5 bpa in U.S. national avg. yield expected in either November or January report
· T-storm Weather: Rain affects Delta/southeast third of Corn Belt Wed.-Thu. (0.67”-1.33”), briefly slowing corn harvest
· ATI Research: On average, an additional 13% of U.S. corn is harvested Oct. 16-23; would boost the 2016 total to 59%
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports forecast in the 45-50 mbu per week range; sorghum estimated at 2.0 mbu
· Ethanol margins: $0.27 per gallon—down from $0.33 last week and $0.40 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: There will be one more monthly USDA soybean crop estimate in November and then the year-end Crop Production Summary in January. U.S. national avg. yield expected to be steady to 0.5 bpa higher by January report
· ATI Research: On average, an additional 13% of U.S. soybeans are harvested Oct. 16-23; would boost ‘16 total to 75%
· T-storm Weather: Rain in Center-West/Southeast Brazil Thu.-Fri. forward to support good soybean planting condition
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to range from 15-20 mbu over the next 4 weeks vs. 10.2 last year
· T-storm Weather: Total of 31% of U.S. HRW wheat received less than half of its normal rain over the last 30 days
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLX16, +$.67 @ $50.96; EBZ, +$.71; EBZ-CLX, $1.43, +$0.04; RBX, -$.0039; NGX, -$.052; HOX, +$.0170
· EIA estimates: crude, +2.0 (API: -3.8); Gasoline, -1.0 (+0.9); Distillates, -1.7 (-2.3)
· Cash ethanol markets were slightly firmer on Tuesday: Chicago gained 1 1/8; New York added ½; Gulf up 1 ¾; Tampa climbed 2 ½; Dallas increased 2 ¾; and LA was ½ higher at $1.78 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs firmer: 2014’s added ½ to 93 ¼-94 ¼; 2015’s up ½ to 93 ¼-94 ¼; and 2016’s gained ½ to 93-94
· The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol inverse lsot $.0073 yesterday, easing to-0.08030/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values were $1.25 lower on Tuesday at $181.30, and are down $1.88 compared to last week
· With Tuesday’s decline, choice boxed beef values established a new low for calendar year 2016
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined $1.16 on Tuesday to $72.41, but is still $1.15 higher vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.06 on Tue. to $52.36. December futures down $0.475 & are $11.235 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather