HIGHLIGHT
· MARKET TREND—Lower: CZ: down $.01; SF: down $.0225; WZ: down $.0525; KWZ: down $.055.
· MACRO. A generally mixed trend is being seen in world stocks to start the week. ASIA—Mixed: Nikkei, -1.32%; Shanghai, +0.40%; Hang Seng, +0.21%. EUROPE: Mixed:DAX, -0.51%; FTSE, +0.10%; CAC, -0.42%. WALL STREET—Futures are weaker, again—DOW, -41 S&P, -2.75; NAS, -5.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.167 @ 94.445; Gold: +$6.72 @ $1,279; Dec crude: +$0.12 @ $56.86/bl.
· T-storm Weather: Storm systems pass every few days over the next 10-14 days, producing areas of rain within the eastern half of the U.S. Corn Belt & parts of the Delta where 0.50”-1.50” occurs, most notably limiting remaining corn & soybean harvesting in Indiana, Michigan & Ohio. Dry weather occurs to the West. A series of rapid temp fluctuations occur over the next 10-14 days, ultimately leaving the northern Plains & Corn Belt colder than normal; readings moderate with southward & westward extent
· CZ, down $.01 @ $3.4250; CH, down $.0175 @ $3.55. Funds bought 2 K on Friday
· SF, down $.0225 @ $9.8475; SH, down $.02 @ $9.96. Funds: Bought 2 K SB and 3 SBM; sold 3 SBO.
· WZ, down $.0525 @ $4.2625; WH, down $.0575 @ $4.4325. The funds bought an additional 2 K on Friday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: The 5-year average increase in U.S. corn harvest from Nov. 5-12 is 8%; the largest gain since 2009 is 13% in 2014
· T-storm Weather: Most Argentina grain areas will be dry over the next 10 days. Temps will be much warmer than normal over the next few days as highs soar into the 90s, before moderating to below-normal levels Thu. forward
· Consultant: Brazil’s previously dry central areas that produce full-season corn saw good rains last week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 39.7 mbu needed; 17.5 last week. Milo—4.4 needed; 2.1 last week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: The 5-year average increase in U.S. soybean harvest from Nov. 5-12 is 4%; the largest gain since 2009 is 6% in 2014
· T-storm Weather: Near- and above-normal rainfall of 1.75” to 3.50” affects soybean areas of Brazil over the next 10 days as the seasonably-wet pattern continues
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 39.6 mbu needed; 91.5 last week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 19.3 mbu needed; 10.4 last week
· ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat emergence on average increases 6% from Nov. 5-12 to 83%
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLZ17, +$.12 @ $56.86; EBF,+$0.08 @ $63.60; EBF-QCLZ, -$0.02; RBZ, -.0115;NGZ, -.046; HOZ, +.0054
· Cash ethanol markets were firmer on Friday: Chicago is quoted at $1.43, up $0.0225; Basis to Chicago—New York, +8 ¾; Gulf, +5; Dallas, 0; Tampa, +13 ½; and LA, +½
· Ethanol RINs weaker on Fri.: 2016’s off 1 ½ at 87-88 ½; 2017’s eased 1 to 88-89 ½; & 2018’s down 1 at 87 ½-89
· The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is trading at +$.36790/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values were $1.11 higher on Friday at $213.85, and are up $5.11 compared to last week
· Cash cattle were weaker on Fri. with live prices pegged at $122, which was $2 lower than Wednesday’s active trade
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 16-cents on Fri. to $80.98, & is $1.57 higher vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.47 on Fri. to $67.47. December futures fell $0.70 & are $4.995 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com