HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: lower--CZ: down $.0050; SF: down $.0425; WZ: down $.0225; KWZ: down $.0225
· MACRO: $ moves to a 13 ½ year high with Yellen giving signals for a Dec rate hike. The Don’s policies seen as boosting inflation. ASIA: Mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.59%; Hang Seng, +0.37%; Shanghai, +0.47%. EUROPE: Weaker: FTSE, -0.55%; DAX, -0.15%; CAC, -0.40%. WALL STREET: Futures suggest a weaker start: DOW, -22; S&P, -4.00; NASDAQ, -4.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.119 @ 101.065; Gold, -$7.10 @ $1,209.80; Dec Crude, +$0.08 @ $45.50
· T-storm Weather: Dry and cool weather prevail across Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay over the next 7 to 10 days. The lack of rain allows soybean planting to rapidly advance, but also intensifies an area of dryness that exists within some key first-crop corn and soybean areas of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo. To the north, several cool fronts trigger heavy thunderstorms in northern areas of Brazil (including ~40% and ~50% of first-crop corn and soybean production) through 10 days
· Corn: CZ down $.0050 @ $3.4150; CH down $.0050 @ $3.4925. Fund buying totaled 4 K on Thursday
· SB: SF dn $.0425 @ $9.8525; SH dn $.04 @ $9.945. Funds—bought 5 K SB 7 K SBM, 6 K SBO. Board Crush: $.74, +$.02; LY, $.74
· Wheat: WZ down $.0225 @ $4.0075; WH down $.0250 @ $4.1750. The funds were estimated buyers of 4 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.42 on Thursday. One year ago, December 2015 corn settled at $3.64 ¼
· ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales for 16/17 for the week ending Nov. 10 of 65.4 mbu were well above the trade range of 35-47, and more than double last year’s 30.7. Sorghum sales for 16/17 were 13.1 mbu vs. 15.9 last year
· T-storm Weather: An area of dryness exists in Brazil across parts of Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and Sao Paulo where satellite data indicates less than 2.00” fell over the last 30 days. This includes a key area of first-crop corn
· Consultant: By the end of November, corn in Argentina will be about 45% planted, or approximately 5% below 2015
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· January 2017 soybean futures closed at $9.89 ½ on Thursday. One year ago, January 2016 beans settled at $8.60
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales for 16/17 for the week ending Nov. 10 of 52.1 mbu were within the trade range of 44-55, but below last year’s 66.0 total
· Consultant: Good rains have moved into northeastern Brazil, which should accelerate what had been slow planting
· ATI Research: U.S. wheat export sales of 22.0 mbu were within trade range of 15-22 but below last year’s total of 26.5
· T-storm Weather: Colder, stormier weather begins to impact central U.S. today. Additional systems through end of the month result in near-normal rain in at least parts of drought-stricken SRW wheat, but exclude driest HRW wheat
ENERGY
· Higher: CLZ16, +$.08@ $45.50; EBF, +$0.04; EBF-CLF, $0.41, -$0.10; RBZ, +$.0004; NGZ, +$.034; HOZ, +$.0107
· A firmer trend was evident in most cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago up 1 3/8; New York added ¾; Gulf, climbed ¼; Tampa increased 1; Dallas up ½; but LA was unchanged at $1.72 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were higher: 2015’s up 1 ¾ at 79 ½-81 ½; 2016’s up 2 at 79 ½-81 ½; and 2017’s added 2 to 79-81 ½
· The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol inverse gained $.011 to -$0.20200/gallon in yesterday’s trade
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef declined 29-cents on Thursday to $182.31, and is $3.28 lower v. a week ago & lowest since Oct. 27
· Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Nov 1 on feed, 98.9%; Oct placements, 95.5%; Marketed in Oct 104.6%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout plummeted $1.83 on Thu. to $71.73, and is $2.71 lower compared to last week
· CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.25 on Thu. to $48.06. December futures declined $0.575 & are $0.61 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather