HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Lower: CU: Down $.02; SU: Down $.0625; WU: Down $.0425; KWU: Down $.01
· MACRO: China CPI slows for the 3rd straight month to 1.9%, well below 3% target rate, raises hopes of more stimulus. ASIA: Mixed with the Nikkei up .69%; Shanghia closes .72% higher; Hang Seng eases .13%. EUROPE: Higher with the FTSE up .35%; CAC, +.47% and the DAX, +.55%. WALL STREET: Futures—slightly firmer with the DOW, +9; S&P, +0.75 NAS, +2.75. EXTERNALS: The $ Index is little changed, -.005 @ 96.335; August Gold is off $1.90 @ $1,331.50 and Sep crude oil is $.21 higher @ $42.23. Deliveries: 0 SBM; 381 SBO; 0 SB; 0 ETOH
· T-storm Weather: Very warm to hot weather begin Tuesday-Wednesday and return maximums to the 90s and minimums to the 70s for several days. Heat breaks Friday-Saturday when a system and its cool front pass. Best rain chances short-term exist Wednesday-Friday when the approaching system triggers rain within the northern third of corn and soybeans; 0.25”-0.75” amounts occur, except north where 1.00”-2.00” unfolds especially from North Dakota through/adjacent Minnesota
· Corn: CU Down $.02 @ $3.2325; CZ Down $.0175 @ $3.33. The funds opened the week buying 2 K
· SB: SU DN $.0525 @ $10.1350; SX DN $.0650 @ $9.7850. Funds: Bot 5K SB, 2K SBM, 5 K SBO. Sep crush, -$.05, $.79; LY: $1.05
· Wheat: WU Down $.03 @ $4.14; WZ Down $.0175 @ $4.37. The funds were said to be even in Monday’s trade
CORN/SORGHUM
· Aug. 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2016 U.S. corn crop: 14.772 bbu (range 14.462-15.246) and 14.540 in July
· Aug. 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--15/16, 1.721 bbu (1.701 in July); 16/17, 2.284 (2.081)
· Corn: Good/Excellent of 74% unch. v. 76% last week (70% in ‘15). Sorghum: G/E down a point to 65% (67% in ’15)
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.715 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 2.284 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 40 mbu; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 25 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Low to moderate chance for heavy rain of 1.00”-2.00” later this week for Ohio
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Aug. 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2016 U.S. soybean crop: 3.948 bbu (range 3.965-4.054) & 3.850 in July
· Aug. 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean carryout--15/16, 324 mbu (350 in July)
· Soybeans: Good/Excellent of 72% unchanged v. last week but above 63% in ‘15
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout at 250 mbu, while 16/17 carry-out is est. at 223 mbu
· Aug. 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2016 U.S. all wheat crop: 2.264 bbu (range: 2.224-2.315) & 2.261 in July
· Aug. 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout--16/17, 1.116 bbu (range: 1.080-1.263)
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLU16, +$.21, $43.23; EBV,+0.11; EBV-CLU, $2.27, -$.10; RBU, -.0025; NGU, -.045; HOU, +$.0071
· A mostly higher trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago gained 1 3/8; New York up ¼; Gulf added 1 1/8; Tampa firmed ½; Dallas increased 2; but LA was 1 ¾ lower at $1.55 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s eased 2 3/8 to 84 ¼-88 ¼; 2015’s off 2 3/8 to 84 ¼-88 ¼; & 2016’s down 2 3/8 to 84-88
· The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol inverse increased $.0293 to -$.06600/gal on Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
· Choice boxed beef values were 17-cents higher on Monday at $199.17, and are up $1.47 compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $1.92 v. last week to $118.92/cwt but $32.21 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 13-cents higher on Mon. at $76.44, but is $2.31 lower vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.55 on Mon. to $69.93. August futures $0.35 lower and are $2.83 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather