HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND— Lower: CU: down $.0250; SQ: down $.0850; WU: down $.0125; KWU: down $.0325
· MACRO: San Francisco Fed Head insists U.S. economy is strong enough to absorb another rate hike this year. ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.57%; Shanghai, -0.29%; Hang Seng,+1.48%. EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, +0.21%; FTSE,-0.80%; CAC, -0.11%. WALL STREET—Futures are lower—DOW, -11; S&P, -2.50 NAS, -7.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.103 @ 95.880; Aug Gold: -$3.50 @ $1,211; Sep crude: -$.36 @ $44.24/bl. Del’ys: SBM, 181; SBO, 43; RR, 9; C, 526; ETOH, 0; HRW, 1; SB, 180; SRW, 11
· T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms focus on the northeast third of the Corn Belt today-Wed. followed by scattered thunderstorms within the southern half of the central U.S. when a cool front passes over Thu.-Sat. (generally along & south of Interstate 80 from Nebraska through Iowa, Illinois, & points south), while rain remains limited elsewhere. Heat occurs to the immediate west of rain this week, leaving the Plains & southwest half of Corn Belt hot with maximums in at least the mid-90s into at least Fri.-Sat.
· CU, down $.0250 @ $3.9950; CZ, down $.0250 @ $4.1225. The funds were heavy buyers on Monday—20 K
· SQ, dn $.0850 @ $10.1625; SX, dn $.0875 @ $10.2125. Fund activity: Bot 15 SB, 7 SBM, 5 SBO. Board Crush: $.90,+2; LY, $.76
· WU, down $.0125 @ @$5.4875; WZ down $.0125 @ $5.72375. The funds began the week buying 7 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· U.S. corn crop is rated 65% Good/Excellent versus 68% last week (76% last year). Silking is pegged at 19% compared to 30% last year and the 5-year average of 27%
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. corn crop is 166.2 bpa versus June USDA projection of 170.7
· T-storm Weather: A drier period for U.S. corn continues/follows for at least one week starting/continuing this weekend; best rain chances (albeit low) in MN & WI. The western half of the central U.S. will be hot over this period
· July 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. guess for 16/17 Brazil corn, 97.5 MMT (range 97.0-99.0); Argentina, 40.0 (39.0-41.0)
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· U.S. soybean crop is rated 62% Good/Excellent versus 64% last week (71% last year). Blooming is pegged at 34% compared to 37% last year and the 5-year avg. of 32%. Setting pods: 7% vs. 6% last year and the avg. of 5%
· T-storm Weather: Some hints suggest the high will lose its grip on the heart of central U.S. by July 22-23, which would keep temps warm but not particularly hot. Some thunderstorms would return, but heavy rain would be needed
· July 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. guess 16/17 Brazil soybeans, 114.0 MMT (range 113.3-115.0); Argentina, 57.7 (57.0-58.0)
· ATI Research: HRS wheat production estimate declines 13 mbu to 344 with an avg. yield of 37.2 bpa
· July 12 USDA WASDE: Trade pegging world wheat ending stocks at 256.6 MMT (range 250.0-262.0) vs. 261. 2 in June
ENERGY
· Lower: CLU17, -$0.36 @ $44.24; EBU, -$0.39 @ $46.49;EBU-QCLU, -.04; RBU, -.0152; NGU, +.008; HOU, -.0118
· Additional strength was seen in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago firmed 2 5/8; New York added 2 ¼; Gulf increased 4 ½; Dallas gained 4; Tampa climbed 3; and LA was 2 higher at $1.76 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs posted slight gains on Monday: 2016’s and 2017’s were ½ higher at 70 ¼-71 ¼
· The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol spread saw the premium for ethanol increase, up $.0327 to -$.05230/gallon,
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values fell $1.30 on Monday to $217.54, and are down $5.35 compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $1.06 v. last week at $117.58/cwt, and is $2.44 lower v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 11-cents loweron Mon. at $104.56, but is $94-cents higher vs. a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $38.07/cwt vs. last week’s $39.04, last month’s $37.27 & last year’s $36.24
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather