HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Lower: CU: down $.0225; SQ: down $.1350; WU: down $.0125; KWU: down $.0075
· MACRO: China mfg activity expands to a 4 month high; Sony, Honda profits soar; Washington, Kelly, calm after chaos? ASIA—Higher: Nikkei, +0.30%; Shanghai,+0.59%; Hang Seng, +0.79%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX,+0.47%; FTSE, +0.81%; CAC, +0.48%. WALL STREET—Futures are much higher—DOW, +106; S&P,+6.75; NAS,+26.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.097 @ 92.815; Aug Gold:-$1.90 @ $1,267; Oct crude: +$.01 @ $50.24/bl. Dely: SBM, 178; SBO, 838; SB, 715
· T-storm Weather: Below-normal temperatures dominate most of the central U.S. over the next 7 to 10 days, especially Thursday-Saturday. when particular coolness unfolds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the onset of particular coolness overWednesday-Friday, resulting in scattered 0.25" to 0.75" amounts with pockets of higher amounts in / near Minnesota and the southwest Plains
· CU, down $.0225 @ $3.6825; CZ, down $.0275 @ $3.82. The funds began the week selling 7 K
· SQ, down $.1350 @ $9.81; SX, down $.14 @ $9.9325. Funds: Sold 5 SB, 4 SBM, bot 2 SBO. Board Crush: $.89, +3;LY, $.81
· WU, down $.0125 @ $4.7325; WZ, down $.01 @ $4.9875. The funds sold an estimated 4 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· U.S. corn crop is rated 61% Good/Excellent versus 62% last week and 76% last year. Silking is 85% compared to 89% last year and the 5-year avg. of 85%. Dough is 23% vs. 28% last year and the 5-year average of 25%
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. corn crop is 164.6 bpa versus June USDA projection of 170.7
· T-storm Weather: Following rainfall across northern corn areas on Wed.-Fri., some additional showers are probable in the Corn Belt Fri.-Sat. but it will take time to determine if more than 0.10" to 0.30" is warranted in some areas
· The USDA this week will complete its survey in preparation for the release of the Crop Production report on Aug. 10.
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· U.S. soybean crop is rated 59% Good/Excellent versus 57% last week and 72% last year. Blooming is pegged at 82% compared to 84% last year and the 5-year avg. of 80%. Setting pods: 48% vs. 51% last year and the avg. of 45%
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. soybean crop is 46.0 bpa vs. June USDA projection of 48.0
· T-storm Weather: A seasonably-warmer period for U.S. soybeans unfolds next week (Aug. 7-10), most likely setting the stage for some additional rainfall. Highest chances are in southern areas & lowest chances are in northern areas
· ATI Research: HRS wheat crop estimate decreases 1 mbu to 343 after incorporating ATI Spring Wheat Tour results
· T-storm Weather: Strong cool front Wed.-Fri. to result in 0.50”-1.50” for spring wheat areas of MN & eastern Dakotas
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLV17, +$0.01 @ $50.24; EBV, -$0.10 @ $52.62; EBV-QCLV,-.10; RBU, -.0012; NGU, +.027; HOU, -.0021
· A weaker trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago down 1 1/8; New York and Dallas off 1; Gulf and Tampa eased ½; and LA was 4 lower at $1.74 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were firmer once again on Monday: 2016’s and 2017’s increased 3 ¼ to 87 ½-90
· The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol spread narrowed in $.0125Monday, to +$.12260/gallon, premium ETOH
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values eased 47-cents on Mondayto $205.75, and are $1.71 lower compared to a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $2.17 v. last week at $117.16/cwt, but is $0.16 higher v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed $1.04 on Monday to $99.09, but is still $2.18 lower vs. last week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $34.90/cwt vs. last week’s $35.03, last month’s $39.04 & last year’s $28.63
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather