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MARKET TREND Lower CN Down 3, SN Unch WN Down 5

June 7, 2016 09:00 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·     HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Lower:  CN: Down $.03; SN: Unch; WN: Down $.0575; KWN: Down $.0050

·        MACRO:  Despite a weak May jobs report—the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound—Yellen.  ASIA:  Higher with Shanghai up .07%; the Nikkei gained .58% & the Hang Seng rose 1.42%  . EUROPE: Responds favorably to the Fed chief with the FTSE up .58%; the CAC is 1.2% to the plus side & the DAX, +1.7%.  WALL STREET:  DOW futures, +56; S&P, +5 ¾; NAS, +17 ¼.  EXTERNALS:  The $ Index is off .040 @ 93.815; gold, $3.40 lower @ $1,242.50 and July crude is hit $50/barrel

·        T-storm Weather: Coolness today will be quickly be replaced by at least several days of heat.  One or two waves of energy move along the edge of heat next week, most likely triggering some thunderstorms and reverting temps to nearer-normal from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt and Delta; wettest with northward and eastward extent.  The systems exit later next week, most likely pulling warmth northward, and ultimately helping an elongated high to establish across the southern U.S. late next week and weekend.  Waves of energy move along the edge of the high, keeping best rain chances in northern and eastern areas

·        CN, Down $.03 @ $4.2450; CZ, Down $.0275 @ $4.2725.  The funds were large buyers Monday, an estimated 25 K       

·        SN, Unch @ $11.3825; SX, Down $.0175 @ $11.04.  Funds:  Bought 10 K SB, 6K SBM and 3 K SBO

·        WN, Down $.0550 @ $5.02; WU, Down $.0625 @ $5.1150.  The funds began the week buying 8 K      

CORN/SORGHUM                                 &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p; 

·        USDA pegs nationwide U.S. corn emergence is 90% vs. 89% in 2015 and the avg. of 86%.  Good/Excellent crop ratings are 75% compared to 72% last week and 74% last year.  Sorghum planting at 58% vs. 52% last year the 62% avg.

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.697 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 1.986 bbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 65 mbu; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 45 mbu

·        June 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 15/16 U.S. corn carry-out is 1.770 bbu; avg. guess for 16/17 is 2.112 bbu

·        June 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 15/16 Brazil corn crop is 78.9 MMT vs. the USDA’s estimate of 81.0 in May

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA pegs U.S. soybean planting as of June 5 at 83%vs. 77% last year and the 5-year average of 77%.  Soybean emergence is 65% vs. 60% in 2015 and the avg. of 57%.  Initial Good/Excellent crop ratings are 72% vs. 69% last year

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 366 mbu; 16/17 carry-out estimated at 416 mbu

·        June 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 15/16 U.S. soybean carry-out is 386 mbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 184 mbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 160 mbu

·        ATI Research: Updated 2016 U.S. winter wheat production estimates (in mbu): HRW, 888; SRW, 356; and White, 215.  The updated U.S. HRS production estimate is 485 mbu

ENERGY

·        Higher: CLN16, +$0.19, $49.8; EBQ, +$0.31; EBQ-CLN, +$0.98, +$0.12; RBN, +$.0030;  NGN, -0.032; HON, +$.0118

·        Cash ethanol markets were firmer on Monday: Chicago, Dallas and Gulf gained 3; New York added 2 5/8; Tampa down increased 3 ¼; and LA was 2 ½ higher at $1.78 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up 3/8 at 81 ½-82 ¼; 2015’s gained 3/8 to 81 ½-82 ¼; & 2016’s firmed 3/8 to 81 ¼-82

·        The July RBOB/June inverse rose nearly $.05 to -.11650/gallon on Monday                             

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY     ​;              ​                        &​nbsp;         

·        Choice boxed beef values gained $1.49  to $224.10 on Monday, and are $2.03 higher vs. last week

·        5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $4.30 v. last week to $129.29/cwt but $26.30 lower vs. last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 83-cents on Monday to $86.13 and is highest since Oc. 22, 2015

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $0.72 higher on Mon. at $77.51.  June futures declined $0.05 but are $4.74 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



The information contained in this e-mail is subject to a disclaimer. Please follow the link below to view. http://www.advance-trading.com/#!disclaimer/c16dt; KWN: Down $.0050

·        MACRO:  Despite a weak May jobs report—the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound—Yellen.  ASIA:  Higher with Shanghai up .07%; the Nikkei gained .58% & the Hang Seng rose 1.42%  . EUROPE: Responds favorably to the Fed chief with the FTSE up .58%; the CAC is 1.2% to the plus side & the DAX, +1.7%.  WALL STREET:  DOW futures, +56; S&P, +5 ¾; NAS, +17 ¼.  EXTERNALS:  The $ Index is off .040 @ 93.815; gold, $3.40 lower @ $1,242.50 and July crude is hit $50/barrel

·        T-storm Weather: Coolness today will be quickly be replaced by at least several days of heat.  One or two waves of energy move along the edge of heat next week, most likely triggering some thunderstorms and reverting temps to nearer-normal from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt and Delta; wettest with northward and eastward extent.  The systems exit later next week, most likely pulling warmth northward, and ultimately helping an elongated high to establish across the southern U.S. late next week and weekend.  Waves of energy move along the edge of the high, keeping best rain chances in northern and eastern areas

·        CN, Down $.03 @ $4.2450; CZ, Down $.0275 @ $4.2725.  The funds were large buyers Monday, an estimated 25 K       

·        SN, Unch @ $11.3825; SX, Down $.0175 @ $11.04.  Funds:  Bought 10 K SB, 6K SBM and 3 K SBO

·        WN, Down $.0550 @ $5.02; WU, Down $.0625 @ $5.1150.  The funds began the week buying 8 K      

CORN/SORGHUM                  <​wbr>   &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​             ​

·        USDA pegs nationwide U.S. corn emergence is 90% vs. 89% in 2015 and the avg. of 86%.  Good/Excellent crop ratings are 75% compared to 72% last week and 74% last year.  Sorghum planting at 58% vs. 52% last year the 62% avg.

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.697 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 1.986 bbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 65 mbu; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 45 mbu

·        June 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 15/16 U.S. corn carry-out is 1.770 bbu; avg. guess for 16/17 is 2.112 bbu

·        June 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 15/16 Brazil corn crop is 78.9 MMT vs. the USDA’s estimate of 81.0 in May

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA pegs U.S. soybean planting as of June 5 at 83%vs. 77% last year and the 5-year average of 77%.  Soybean emergence is 65% vs. 60% in 2015 and the avg. of 57%.  Initial Good/Excellent crop ratings are 72% vs. 69% last year

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 366 mbu; 16/17 carry-out estimated at 416 mbu

·        June 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 15/16 U.S. soybean carry-out is 386 mbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 184 mbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 160 mbu

·        ATI Research: Updated 2016 U.S. winter wheat production estimates (in mbu): HRW, 888; SRW, 356; and White, 215.  The updated U.S. HRS production estimate is 485 mbu

ENERGY

·        Higher: CLN16, +$0.19, $49.8; EBQ, +$0.31; EBQ-CLN, +$0.98, +$0.12; RBN, +$.0030;  NGN, -0.032; HON, +$.0118

·        Cash ethanol markets were firmer on Monday: Chicago, Dallas and Gulf gained 3; New York added 2 5/8; Tampa down increased 3 ¼; and LA was 2 ½ higher at $1.78 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up 3/8 at 81 ½-82 ¼; 2015’s gained 3/8 to 81 ½-82 ¼; & 2016’s firmed 3/8 to 81 ¼-82

·        The July RBOB/June inverse rose nearly $.05 to -.11650/gallon on Monday                             

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               &​nbsp;                     

·  &​nbsp;     Choice boxed beef values gained $1.49  to $224.10 on Monday, and are $2.03 higher vs. last week

·        5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $4.30 v. last week to $129.29/cwt but $26.30 lower vs. last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 83-cents on Monday to $86.13 and is highest since Oc. 22, 2015

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $0.72 higher on Mon. at $77.51.  June futures declined $0.05 but are $4.74 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



The information contained in this e-mail is subject to a disclaimer. Please follow the link below to view. http://www.advance-trading.com/#!disclaimer/c16dt

 

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