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MARKET TREND Lower CN Down 3, SN Down 14, WN Down 3

May 24, 2016 07:32 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND-Lower:   CN: Down $.0150 SN: Down $.0925; WN: Down $.0175; KWN: Down $.0275

·        MACRO:  Global equities have turned higher in choppy trading.  ASIA: Shares ended mostly lower as oil fell and concerns about a future U.S. rate hike escalated—Hang Seng, up .11%; Shanghai, down .76%; Nikkei, down .94%. EUROPE:  Firmer after a weak start—FTSE, +.61%; DAX, +.86% and the CAC 40, +1.30%.  WALL STREET:  Futures are higher:  DOW, +53; S&P, +7 ½; NAS, +17.  EXTERNALS: The $ Index is .204 higher @ 95.465; Gold is $10.60 lower @ $1,242.60;  July WTI is $.20 lower

·        T-storm Weather: Near- and above-normal temperatures dominate through 10 days.  All uncertainty revolves around a parade of systems that drift into the central U.S. and erratically wobble.  The setup produces varying areas of rain and thunderstorms on each of the next 10 days with the end result being that above-normal totals affect a large area, especially across the western half of corn and soybeans where more than 3.00" is probable (including wettest areas of / near eastern Nebraska where more than 2.00" fell over the last two weeks)

·        CN, Down $.0150 @ $3.9625; CZ, Down $.0075 @ $4.02.  The funds bought 10 K on Monday  

·        SN, Down $.0925 @ $10.4925; SX, Down $.12 @ $10.2425.  Funds:  sold 7 K SB; 5 K SBM and even on SBO yesterday 

·        WN, Down $.0175 @ $4.6025;  WU, Down $.0225 @ $4.7075.  The funds sold 3 K to begin the week  

CORN/SORGHUM                       &​nbsp;                        <​wbr>                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;           

·    &nb​sp;   USDA pegs nationwide U.S. corn planting as of May 22 at 86% vs. 90% last year and the 5-year average of 85%.  Corn emergence is 60% vs. 69% in 2015 and the average of 55%.  Sorghum planting at 37% vs. 40% last year the 43% avg.

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.763 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 1.938 bbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 65 mbu; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 45 mbu

·        T-storm Weather: Occasional thunderstorms continue in southern Brazil, keeping the southern 30% of safrinha (double crop) corn wet.  In contrast, rain is not foreseen for the northern 60% of safrinha corn through two weeks

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA pegs U.S. soybean planting as of May 22 at 56%, which is unchanged vs. last year but above the 5-year average of 52%.  Soybean emergence is 22% vs. 27% in 2015 and the average of 21%

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 416 mbu; 16/17 carry-out estimated at 353 mbu

·        T-storm Weather: Conditions for Argentina soybean harvest--cooler than normal with no rain over the next week

·        ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 311 mbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 276 mbu

·        ATI Research: Updated 2016 U.S. winter wheat production estimates (in mbu): HRW, 890; SRW, 357; and White, 216.  The initial crop condition based U.S. HRS production estimate is 478 mbu

ENERGY

·        Lower:  CLN16, -$0.20, $47.88; EBN, -$0.25; EBN-CLN, +$0.24, -$0.03; RBM, -$.0033; NGM, +0.008; HOM, -$.0066

·        Cash ethanol markets were steady to slightly higher on Monday: Chicago gained 1; New York and Gulf up ¼; Tampa firmed 1; Dallas added ½; and LA was steady at $1.74 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs lower: 2014’s down 1 ¼ at 77 ¾-78 ¾; 2015’s off 1 ¼ to 77 ¾-78 ¾; and 2016’s down 1 ¼ to 77 ½-78 ½

·        The June RBOB/June spread gained $.0060 to +$.03560/gallon yesterday                          &nb​sp;

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               &​nbsp;                     

·        C​hoice boxed beef values were $1.64 lower on Monday, but at $224.32 are still $1.92 higher vs. last week 

·        5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $1.81 v. last week to $130.75/cwt and $29.17 lower vs. last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 82-cents on Monday to $83.66, and is up 32-cents v. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.12 Mon. to $78.93.  June futures down $0.775 but are still $0.145 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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