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MARKET TREND Lower CN, down 2, SN, down 4, WN, down 3

May 8, 2017 08:02 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Lower: CN, down $.0175; SN, down $.0375; WN, down $.0450; KWN, down $.0225

·       MACRO—Pundits argue Macron’s French election victory already priced in, profit taking causing weakness.  ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +2.31%; Shanghai, -0.85%; Hang Seng, +0.41%.  EUROPE—Mostly lower:  DAX, -0.29%; FTSE, +0.09%; CAC, -0.88%. Wall Street-Futures are weaker: DOW, -43; S&P, -03.50; NAS, -7.25.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index,+0.262 @ 98.615; June Gold, +$8.60 @ $1,236; June Crude, -$0.04 @ $46.18.  Deliveries: SBM, 22; SBO, 193; Corn, 553; ETOH, 0; HRW, 7; SB, 0; SRW, 1

·       T-storm Weather: A larger upper-level system moves across central U.S. over Tuesday-Friday and produces generalized rain of 0.50”-1.50” across the southern half to two-thirds of central U.S. (generally from Omaha, NE through Toledo, OH and points south), including wettest areas of the southern Corn Belt, northern Delta and central Plains where highest coverage and amounts occur.  Areas to the north will be drier, despite a few pockets of rain until the front passes Tuesday

·       Corn: CN down $.0175  @$3.69;  CZ down $.0150 @ $3.87.   Fund buying totaled 6 K on Friday         

·       SB: SN down $.0375 @ $9.6925; SX dn $.0375 @ $9.6275.  Funds: even SB, sold 2 SBM, bot 6 BO.  Board Crush: $.86, +2; LY; $.84

·       Wheat: WN down $.0450 @ $4.3775; WU down $.0375 @$4.5250.  The funds bought 3 K to close out the week           

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: Drying follows the exit of rain the U.S. Plains later this week, but showers continue at times in the Corn Belt (especially east).  Temps turn seasonably-mild from west to east over May 14-16 as coolness breaks

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. sorghum planting progress increases approx. 4% from April 30-May 7 to 30%

·       Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 39.5 mbu needed; 43.1 last week.  Milo—3.3 needed; 4.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather: Dry weather continues in safrinha(double crop) corn areas of Center-West and Southeast Brazil as the dry season begins—as is normal of May

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 11.6 mbu needed; 19.2 last week

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean and soymeal export demand has been historically strong, but domestic soymeal demand has been sluggish.  Possible 75 mbu increase in soybean exports, 15-20 mbu reduction in crush in Wed. USDA report

·       T-storm Weather: Hard frost/light freeze in NE third of Corn Belt today, but generally in non-heading SRW wheat area

·       ATI Research: The 5-year average for U.S. spring wheat emergence increases approximately 13% from April 30-May 7 to 30%

·       Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT: Wheat, 25.8 needed; 21.1 last week

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLM17, -$0.04 @ $46.18; EBN, +.09 @ $49.18;EBN-QCLN, +.09; RBM,+$.0078; NGM, -$0.035; HOM, +$.0062

·       Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Friday: Chicago up 1 1/8; New York steady; Gulf eased 1; Dallas steady; Tampa declined ½; but LA was 2 ½ higher at $1.64 ½ per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were unchanged on Friday: 2016’s and 2017’s were at 40 ½-42

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread lost nearly a cent on Friday and closed at +$.00360/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          ​           

·       Choic​e boxed beef values were $3.29 higher on Friday at $238.87, and are up $17.09 compared to last week

·       Despite Friday’s limit-down move, June 2017 live cattle futures since April 4 have increased $19.00 (17.4%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained $1.11 on Friday to $77.49, and is $3.46 higher vs. a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.31 on Fri. at $63.55.  May futures gained $0.40 and are $5.85 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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