HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Lower: CN: Down $.01; SN: Down $.01; WN: Down $.05; KWN: Down $.02
· MACRO: Global equities are mixed; U.S. markets likely to start lower ahead of the weekend. Data from China showed 2nd quarter growth may drop behind the 1st quarter pace ASIA: Nikkei, +.68%; Shanghai, -.11%; Hang Seng, +1.75% .EUROPE: The CAC is .08% lower; DAX, +.08%; FTSE, +.27%. WALL STREET: Pre-market indicators—DOW, -33; S&P, -5; NAS, -9 ¼. OUTSIDE MARKETS: The $ Index is down .298 @ 95.905; July Gold is $16.70 higher @ $1,335.10 and August crude is $.20 lower @ $48.13. Deliveries: Corn, 164; SB, 592; SBO, 960; HRW, 398 SRW, 375
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms affect the central Plains and Corn Belt today. A classic setup for heavy rain unfolds this weekend as a wave of energy rides the edge of a northward-moving warm front. A swath of heavy rain results from multiple thunderstorm clusters with any northward shifts in the setup to aid more corn and soybeans, while any southward shift aids less corn and soybeans; the most likely swath remains from / adjacent Kansas through Missouri through central Illinois and Indiana
· CN, Down $.01 @ $3.5775; CZ, Down $.01 @ $3.7025. Funds: sold 35 K
· SN, Dn $.01 @ $11.74; SX, Down $.0525 @ $11.48. Funds: bot 15 K SB, 8 K SM; 4 K SBO. July crush, -6, $.62 LY: $1.04
· WN, Down $.05 @ $4.2625; WU, Down $.0525 @ $4.4025. The funds bought 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM       ;
· ; USDA pegs June 1 corn stocks at 4.722 bbu--sharply above the avg. trade guess of 4.530 and well above the top end of the range of 4.436-4.604. Strongly supports a reduction in annual feed/residual use in July 12 USDA WASDE report
· USDA pegs U.S. corn acres at 94.1 mil, sharply above avg. trade guess of 92.8 & above top end of range of 91.5-94.0
· ATI Research: Boost in old-crop corn carry-out after larger-than-expected June 1 stocks; larger 2016 crop est. due to higher acreage; utilizing a 168.0 bpa national avg. yield assumption, 16/17 corn ending stocks could top 2.300 bbu
· ATI Research: July-Aug U.S. corn exports est. at 433 mbu; would put 15/16 crop year total at 1.887 bbu (USDA: 1.825)
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA pegs June 1 soybean stocks 870 mbu--above avg. trade guess of 831. But a cut in residual use in July 12 WASDE report could be more than offset by larger exports; thus, 15/16 carry-out may decline vs. current USDA est. of 370
· USDA pegs U.S. soybean acreage at 83.7 mil acres, below avg. trade guess of 83.9 mil; within the range of 82.6-85.7
· ATI Research: Drop in old-crop bean carry-out; less-than-expected rise in 2016 crop est. due to modest acreage increase; utilizing a 46.7 bpa national avg. yield assumption, 16/17 bean ending stocks could dip below 200 mbu
· USDA pegs all wheat acreage 50.8 mil acres vs. avg. trade guess of 49.7; other spring acres up 785 k vs. March report
· USDA pegs June 1 all wheat stocks at 981, nearly in line with the average trade guess of 983 mbu
ENERGY
· Lower: CLQ16, -$0.20, $48.13; EBU, -$0.32; EBU-CLU, $0.70, $.00; RBQ, -$.0261; NGQ, +0.016; HOQ, -$.0075
· A mostly firmer trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago and Tampa up 2 ½; New York and Dallas added 1 ½; Gulf climbed 3 ¼; but LA was unchanged at $1.77 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up ¼ to 91-93 ¼; 2015’s gained ¼ to 91-93; 2016’s climbed ½ to 91-93
· The July RBOB/July ethanol inverse increased $.0472 to -$.12270/gal on Thursday
;LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
· Choice boxed beef values were 13-cents lower on Thursday at $208.44, and are down $7.02 compared to last week
· Light to moderate cash cattle trading occurred on Thursday, with live sales in the South at $122—up $6 vs. a week ago
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 71-cents on Thu., and is 43-cents lower compared to the prior week
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.12 on Thursday to $84.91. July futures declined $0.25 and are $2.06 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather