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MARKET TREND Lower CK, down 1, SK, down 6, WK, down 1

March 2, 2017 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Lower: CK, down $.0125; SK, down $.0325; WK, down $.01;  KWK, down $.01 

·        MACRO—DOW tops 21,000 ; Fed likely to raise rates in March; overseas mixed.  ASIA—Mostly lower:  Nikkei, +0.88%; Shanghai, -0.50%; Hang Seng, -0.20%; EUROPE—Mostly higher:  FTSE, -0.02%; DAX, +0.05%; CAC, +0.17%.   Wall STREET-Futures taking a breather:  DOW, -2; S&P, -3.25; NASDAQ, -3.50.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, +0.205 @ 101.985;  Gold, -$7.10 @ $1,243; and April Crude, -$0.48 @ $53.35.  Del’y: C, 118; SB, 561; SBM, 253; SBO, 594; HRW, 6; SRW, 790

·        T-storm Weather: Numerous cool fronts sweep into Brazil and dissipate over the next two weeks, triggering thunderstorms in varying areas each day, especially in central and northern areas where the wet pattern continues; 3.50" to 7.00" north contrasts with 2.50" to 4.50" south.  A few thunderstorms affect Argentina through Friday as a cool front passes, but amounts mostly stay within 0.25" to 0.75" in key central and southern areas that were wet at one point or another within the last six weeks

·        Corn: CK down $.0125 @ $3.8075;  CH down $.0125 @ $3.7450.  The funds bought 20 K at midweek       

·        SB: SK down $.0325 @ $10.4850; SH down $.0325 @ $10.38.  Funds: bot 10 SB; 8 SBO, 3 SBM.  Board Crush:  0.75, -2; LY: $.53

·        Wheat: WK, down $.01 @ $4.56; WH up $.02 @ $4.3750.  Funds bought 8 K yesterday            

       CORN/SORGHUM

·        March 2017 corn futures on Wed. closed at $3.75 ¾.  The contract has not settled above $3.80 since June 29, 2016

·        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 28-35 for 16/17 corn

·        T-storm Weather: The wet pattern that begin in mid-January across much of Center-West, North and Northeast Brazil continues into at least mid-March, keeping second-crop corn wet

·        Consultant: Brazil corn production est. unch at 86.0 MMT.  Full-season harvest continuing; yields generally very good

·        Ethanol grind: Record 1,034,000 barrels/day for week end Feb. 24—unchanged v. last week but up 4.8% vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-18 mbu for 16/17 soybeans; soymeal, 125-300 K MT; soyoil, 5-30 

·        Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is unchanged at 54.0 MMT.  The area that has benefited the most from recent rain is southern Buenos Aires where soil moisture has now been recharged from earlier dry weather

·        This year’s final crop insurance average for hard red spring wheat is $5.65 compared to $5.13  in 2016

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 13-18 mbu for 16/17 all wheat

·        T-storm Weather: Over the next two weeks, U.S. HRW wheat in the Plains will most likely be dry because each system moves too quickly to develop a sustained flow of southeasterly winds that would pull muggy air into the Plains

ENERGY

·        Mixed: CLJ17, -$0.48 @ $53.35; EBK, -$0.47; EBK-CLK, $2.10, +$0.02; RBJ, -$.0291;NGJ, -$0.007; HOJ, -$.0187

·        Cash ethanol markets were steady to weaker on Wednesday: Chicago down 1 ½; New York eased ¼; Gulf and Tampa declined ½; Dallas unchanged; but LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.68 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were steady on Wed: 2015’s unch at 35-36; 2016’s unch at 36 ½-37 ½; and 2017’s unch at 37-38

·        The April RBOB/Apr ethanol spread lost $.0464 Wednesday to settle at$0.13500/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             ​;                       ​

·        Choice boxed beef values increased $1.95 on Wednesday to $206.68, and are $12.15 higher vs. the prior week

·        Light to moderate cash cattle trading occurred on Wed. in the South with prices at $125, near steady with last week

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout eased 90-cents on Wednesday to $80.77, but is $1.01 higher vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index declined $1.12 on Wed. to $74.77.  April futures were up $0.825 but are $6.345 below the index             

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

                      



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