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MARKET TREND Lower CH, down 3, SH, down 7, WH, down 4

February 17, 2017 07:13 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Lower: CH, down $.0325; SH, down $.0775; WH, down $.0350;  KWH, down $.0325 

·        MACRO—Global markets rethink growth outlook recently priced into equities—too expensive/too much exuberance?  ASIA:  Nikkei, -0.58%; Shanghai, -0.86%; Hang Seng, -0.31%; EUROPE—Mostly weaker:  FTSE, +0.08%; DAX, -0.30%; CAC, -0.78%.  Wall STREET-Pre markets are notably lower:  DOW futures, -50; S&P, -6.00; NASDAQ, -9.00. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +0.240 @ 100.670;  Gold, +$0.50 @ $1,241; and Mar Crude, -$0.23 @ $53.13

·        T-storm Weather: Several systems trigger strong thunderstorms in Argentina through Sat., followed by thunderstorms in varying areas at varying times next week.  The end result is that widespread rain occurs with highest totals of 2.75"-5.50" in central areas where wetness was an issue at one point or another this season.  Upper-level high pressure suppresses rain in much of Brazil and Paraguay through 10 days, though thunderstorms occasionally dot Mato Grosso, especially with northwestward extent

·        Corn: CH down $.0325 @ $3.7025;  CK down $.0350 @ $3.7750.  The funds were even yesterday     

·        SB: SH down $.0775 @ $10.36; SK down $.08 @ $10.4675.  Funds:  sold 5 SB; 4 SBM; 5 SBO.   Crush: $.77, +$.02; LY: $.49

·        Wheat: down $.0350 @ $4.4425; WK down $.0375 @ $4.5750.  The funds sold 5 K on Thursday        

     

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       &nbs​p;March 2017 corn futures on Thu. traded to $3.80, the highest level since July 14, but settled $0.05 ¼ lower at $3.73 ½

·        ATI Research: U.S. 16/17 corn export sales for week ending Feb. 9 of 30.8 mbu were down 19% from the previous week and 35% from the prior 4-week average.  This year’s total was also down 26% from last year’s level of 41.4 mbu

·        T-storm Weather: Near/above-normal rain of 2.00”-4.00” occurs across Mato Grosso, Brazil next 10 days.  Conditions for safrinha (double crop) corn planting improve with time, but remain mixed (i.e. not ideal) given recent heavy rain

·        Consultant: Safrinha (double crop) corn planting in Mato Grosso, Brazil (#1 safrinhastate) is 46.6% v. 25.7% last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        November 2017 soybean futures on Wednesday closed at $10.34 ¼, the highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 12, 2014, but ended $0.10 ¼ lower on Thursday at $10.24

·        ATI Research: U.S. 16/17 soybean export sales for week ending Feb. 9 of 32.7 mbu were up 93% from the previous week and 41% from the prior 4-week average.  This year’s total was also up 57% from last year’s level of 20.8 mbu

·        CBT March 2017 wheat futures Thu. traded to $4.64 ¼, highest level since Aug. 22, but settled $0.07 lower at $4.47 ¾

·        ATI Research: U.S. 16/17 wheat export sales for week ending Feb. 9 of 20.9 mbu were up 8% from the previous week and 10% from the prior 4-week average.  This year’s total was also more than double last year’s level of 9.3 mbu

ENERGY

·        Weaker:   CLH17, -0.23 @ $53.13; EBJ, -$0.36; EBH-CLH, $2.13, -$0.16; RBH, -$.0269;NGH, +$0.004; HOH, -$.0135

·        A mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago down 1 ¼; New York and Gulf off a penny; Dallas added 1; Tampa climbed 2; and LA was a penny lower at $1.69 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were weaker Thu.: 2015’s down ½ at 45 ½-47; 2016’s off 1 at 46 ½-48 ½; & 2017’s eased 7/8 to 46 ¾-49 

·        The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread inverted another penny+, to  -0.01630/gallon, premium ETOH    

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &nbs​p;                        ​;        

·        Choice boxed beef values increased 88-cents on Thursday to $189.22 and are 51-cents higher vs. a week ago

·        Dressed steer weight for week end Feb. 4: 887 lbs, up 3 pounds v. last week, 894 for 4-week avg. & 899 last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout eased 78-cents on Thu. to $84.43 and is 12-cents lower compared to last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.67 on Thu. to $75.98.  April futures were $0.95 lower and are $6.155 below the index          

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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