HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Lower: CH, down $.02; SH, down $.0650; WH, down $.02; KWH, down $.0250
· MACRO: Asia meandered on Chinese inflation data, Dec producer prices up 5.5% yr to yr. ASIA—Mixed. Nikkei, -0.08%; Hang Seng, +0.83%; Shanghai, -0.02%. EUROPE—bank stocks weigh, Brexit/EU uncertainty; stocks recover: FTSE, +0.38%; DAX, +0.14%; CAC, +0.03%. Wall STREET: Pre-markets up, slightly: DOW, +3; S&P, +0.50; NASDAQ, +1.75. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.001 @101.910; Jan Gold, -$1.10 @ $1,182.40; Feb Crude, +$0.25 @ $52.21. Deliveries: SBM, 198 SBO, 329; SB, 465
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, thunderstorms recur over the next 24 hours in wettest areas, after which thunderstorms focus on northern areas through next week, while southern areas turn or remain drier, and wettest central areas become sandwiched between driest and wettest weather. Since several locations received ~10.00" to ~13.00" over the last 30 days, rain is unneeded in several key locations. Near-normal rainfall affects much of Brazil and Paraguay over the next 10 days
· Corn: CH down $.02 @ $3.58; CK down $.02 @ $3.65. The funds opened Mondaybuying 4 k
· SB: SH dn $.0650 @ $9.90; SK dn $.0675 @ $10.0750. Funds—Bot 5 SB, 3 SBM, 4 SBO. Board Crush: $.76, +$.01; LY, $.52
· Wheat: WH down $.0225 @$4.5; WK down $.0225 @ $4.3775. Fund buying estimated at 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ; Consultant: Argentina corn production is lowered 0.5 MMT to 34.5 as the crop has been impacted by wet conditions. One exception is northern Argentina, where weather has not been as erratic & nearly all corn remains to be planted
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina over the next 10 days, thunderstorms occur every 1-3 days within the northern third to half of corn, increasing or maintaining wetness as 1.75”-3.50” of rain unfolds
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.446 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 29 mbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Nationwide Argentina soybean harvest estimate is lowered 1.0 MMT to 55.0 due to erratic weather
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 457 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Maintain dry and seasonable weather occur within the southern third to half of Argentina’s soybean growing belt over the next 10 days, increasing dryness within/near southwest Buenos Aires
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 131 mbu compared to 194 last year
· T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a major rain event breaks drought in at least HRW wheat areas of Southern Plains Fri.-Sat.; 1.00"-3.00" of rain occurs with higher amounts possible, but mainly along eastern fringes of production
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLG17, +$0.25 @ $52.21; EBH, +$0.33; EBH-CLH, $2.18, +$0.11; RBG, +$.0138; NGG, +$0.058; HOG, +$.0043
· A weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago down 1 7/8; New York off 2; Gulf eased 3 ¾; Tampa declined 2 ½; Dallas fell 2 ¼; and LA was 3 lower at $1.66 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were lower on Monday: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s were all down 3 ¼ at 75 ½-79
· The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread lost $.0363 on Monday, dropping to+0.04670/gallon, premium RBOB
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values declined $1.46 on Monday to $197.35, and is $5.98 lower vs. last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $0.23 v. last week at $117.67/cwt, but is $14.59 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 89-cents higher Mon. at $79.40, but is down 71-cents v. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.16 to $58.85. February futures eased $0.225 but are still $4.90 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather