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MARKET TREND Lower CH, down 2, SH, down 2, WH, down 4

January 11, 2017 08:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Lower: CH, down $.0125; SH, down $.02; WH, down $.03;  KWH, down $.0250

·        MACRO:  Global markets are generally steady in anticipation of policy clarification from the president-elect.  ASIA—Mixed.  Nikkei, +0.33%; Hang Seng, +0.84%; Shanghai,  -0.77%.   EUROPE—Firmer: FTSE, +0.10%; DAX, +0.27%; CAC, +0.09%.  Wall STREET:  Pre-markets are higher.  DOW, +14; S&P, +0.50; NASDAQ, +5.75.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.319 @102.315;  Mar Gold, +$3.70 @ $1,190.60;  Feb Crude, +$0.37 @ $51.19.  Deliveries:  SBM, 195; SBO, 208; SB, 151

·        T-storm Weather: In Brazil (and Paraguay), cool fronts sweep northward and trigger thunderstorms in varying areas at varying times through 10 days.  Highest amounts of ~5.00" occur in an arc from southeast Mato Grosso through southern Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo, including some of the driest corn and soybean areas.  Drought-stricken Bahia also receives some rain, especially starting Thursday or Friday, but the state remains dry and hot until then

·        Corn: CH down $.0125 @ $3.57; CK down $.0150 @ $3.6375.  The funds sold 3 K on Tuesday       

·        SB: SH dn $.0225 @ $10.1150; SK dn $.02 @ $10.2075.  Funds—Bot 5 SB, 4 SBM, 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $.77, +$.01; LY, $.54

·        Wheat: WH down $.03 @$4.2375; WK down $.03 @ $4.3675.  Fund selling totaled 2 K yesterday                        &n​bsp;   

CORN/SORGHUM

·        Consultan​t: Concern full-season corn in Brazil may not end up as good as expected due to recent dry weather in north

·        T-storm Weather: Rain occurs Wed-Thu. in Brazil states of Goias/Mato Grosso/Minas Gerais, including dry corn areas 

·        Jan. 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 16/17 carryout is 2.378 bbu vs. 2.403 in December

·        Jan. 12 USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks is 12.323 bbu vs. 11.238 last year

·        Ethanol margins: $0.16 per gallon—down from $0.18 last week and $0.19 in 2016.  EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        T-storm Weather: In Argentina, rain occurs in northern growing areas over the next 10 days, producing another 1.00”-3.00”, slowing soybean planting and maintaining excessively-wet conditions for northern Cordoba and Santa Fe

·        Jan. 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 16/17 carryout is 473 mbu vs. 480 in December

·        Jan. 12 USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks is 2.953 bbu vs. 2.715 last year

·        T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a large system passes within Friday-Monday (Jan. 13-16).  The system causes drought to end for much of the HRW and SRW wheat belts as more than one month's worth of rain unfolds over a matter of days

·        Jan. 12 USDA Winter Wheat Seedings: Avg. trade guesses; HRW, 25.3 (26.6 last year); SRW, 5.6 (6.0), White, 3.5 (3.5)

ENERGY

·        Firmer:  CLG17, +$0.37 @ $51.19; EBH, +$0.42; EBH-CLH, $1.99, +$0.05; RBG, +$.0258; NGG, -$0.035; HOG, +$.0109

·        EIA estimates (API): Crude oil, +1.8 (+1.5); Gasoline, +1.3 (+1.7); Distillates, -0.1 (+5.5)

·        Cash ethanol markets continued to trend lower on Tuesday: Chicago off 3 3/8; New York down 2 ½; Gulf fell 3 ½; Tampa slid 3 ¾;  Dallas declined 3; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.64 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were weaker on Tuesday: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s were 1 ½ lower at 74 ½-77

·        The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread was little changed, easing $.0030 to+0.04370/gallon,  premium RBOB         

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;         

·     &n​bsp;  Choice boxed beef values plummeted $3.97 Tue., largest one-decline since Sep. 2, & are down $9.95 vs. a week ago

·        February live cattle futures on Tue. closed at $119.525, the highest settlement price for the contract since March 21

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.38 on Tue. to $78.02, and is $2.09 lower compared to last week

·        Current nearby board hog crush value is $42.70/cwt vs. last week’s $42.74, last month’s $41.13 & last year’s $44.38  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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