HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Lower: CH, down $.0150; SF, down $.0475; WH, down $.0375; KWH, down $.0225
· MACRO: Global stocks are mixed ahead of an expected rate hike by the Fed. ASIA-mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.02%; Hang Seng, +0.04%; Shanghai, -0.45%. EUROPE-lower: FTSE, -0.17%; DAX, -0.28%; CAC, -0.66%. Wall STREET: Pre-markets have a mostly negative bias: DOW, -18; S&P, -1.50; NASDAQ, +0.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.137 @100.970; Gold, +$5.20 @ $1,161.90; Jan Crude, -$.72 @ $52.24. Deliveries: SBM, 40; SBO, 170; HRW, 35 SRW, 0; Oats, 89: EU wheat, 1
· T-storm Weather: Dry weather occurs into Saturday across Argentina, and several days of heat begin Thursday-Friday. Changes begin Saturday night and Sunday when the first of multiple waves pass, marking the start of a stormier pattern. Widespread coverage of at least near-normal rainfall is probable next week (Dec. 18-24). In Brazil, widespread rain focuses on northern growing areas over the next few days, including flowering and filling soybean areas of Goias and Mato Grosso
· Corn: CH down $.0150 @ $3.59590 CK, down $.01 @ $3.6675. Fund buying totaled 4 K on Tuesday
· SB: SF dn $.0475 @ $10.2325; SH, dn $.0450 @ $10.35. Funds—Sold 2 SB, 1 SBM, 2 SBM. Board Crush: $.70, -.01; LY, $.74
· Wheat: WH down $.0325 @ $4.1375; WK, down $.0375 @ $4.1375. The funds bought 2 K Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: Full-season corn in southern Brazil is generally rated in good condition in spite of some dry pockets in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. The earliest corn in southern Brazil will start to be harvested by the end of December
· T-storm Weather: Heaviest rain next week across Argentina corn is projected to be 1.00”-2.00” in central & northern areas, with slightly drier weather in areas of the south. End result is most likely for topsoil moisture to stabilize
· ATI Research: USDA Feed Outlook lowers 16/17 U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units by 0.6 million (0.6%) v. November
· Ethanol margins: $0.48 per gallon—up from $0.33 last week and above $0.26 in 2015. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· T-storm Weather: Southern soybean areas of Brazil receive little to no rain through this weekend, but thunderstorms gradually return Mon. forward. This likely leads to 1.25”-2.50” of rain Dec. 19-24, maintaining adequate soil moisture
· Consultant: Some moisture stress is appearing in drier soybean areas of Argentina. If the forecasted rains for next week fail to develop, the situation could deteriorate very quickly
· ATI Research: U.S. HRS export sales over the last 4 weeks totaled 34 mbu—the highest total since at least 1997
· T-storm Weather: Strong system Fri.-Sat. Delta, East/SE SRW wheat see rain (0.50”-1.50”); most Plains HRW stay dry
ENERGY
· Lower: CLF17, -$0.74 @ $52.24; EBG, -$0.84; EBG-CLF, $2.68, -$0.06; RBF, -$.0283; NGF, -$.023; HOF, -$.0150
· EIA estimates (API): Crude oil, -1.7 (+4.7); Gasoline, +1.8 (+3.9); Distillates, +1.0 (+0.2)
· A mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago up 2 1/8; New York steady; Gulf eased 3 ¾; Tampa increased 5 ½; Dallas gained 5; and LA was 6 higher at $2.00 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs continued to rebound: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s all firmed 3 ½ to 84-88
· The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol inverse eased $.0177 to -$0.19230/gallon on Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
·  Choice boxed beef values increased $2.17 on Tuesday to $191.73—up $1.22 vs. last week & highest level since Sep. 1
· February live cattle futures on Tue. closed at $113.975—the highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 15
· USDA mandatory pork carcass declined 82-cents on Tuesday to $75.07, but is still up $1.37 vs. the previous week
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.58 Tue. to $56.11. December futures were up $0.20 but are $1.065 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather