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MARKET TREND Lower CH, dn 1 SH, dn 4, WH, dn 2

February 9, 2017 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Lower: CH, dn $.0125; SH, dn $.0550; WH, dn $.02;  KWH, dn $.0225.  CONAB: C, +2.9 (87.4); SB, +1.8 (105.6)

·        MACRO—Earnings continue to support global equities. ASIA-Mostly Higher:  Nikkei, -0.53%; Hang Seng, +0.17%; Shanghai, +0.53%.   EUROPE- Higher: FTSE, +0.18%; DAX, +0.43%; CAC, +0.68%.  Wall STREET-Pre-markets are higher; initial jobless claims; Chicago and St. Louis Fed leaders are speaking today:  DOW, +35; S&P, +4.50; NASDAQ, +8.00. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +0.036 @ 100.300;  Gold, +$0.20 @ $1,238; and Mar Crude is up $.49 @ $52.83

·        T-storm Weather: A slow-moving upper-level system produces 2.00"-4.00" of rain (& locally 6.00") across the northwest third of Argentina's growing belt through Sat.—primarily to the immediate north of areas that were flooded last month (& areas that were wet last week), but managing to include some of the areas that were a concern last month in Cordoba & Santa Fe; lesser amounts elsewhere.  Around 5 days of drying generally follow before at least some thunderstorms return late next week forward

·        Corn: CH down $.0125 @ $3.6950;  CK down $.0125 @ $3.7525.  The funds bought an estimated 5 K at mid-week  

·        SB: SH dn $.0550 @ $10.5535; SK down $.0550 @ $10.6375.  Funds bought 13 SB; 6 SBM; 4 K SBO.  Crush: $.73, -$.01; LY: $.53

·        Wheat: down $.02 @ $4.3050; WK down $.0175 @ $4.4175  The funds sold 1 K yesterday           

 

            CORN/SORGHUM

·&nb​sp;       USDA WASDE 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade est. U.S. corn carryout--16/17, 2.334 bbu (range 2.250-2.415) & 2.355 in Jan.

·        USDA WASDE: Avg. trade est. 16/17 Brazil corn crop, 86.9 MMT (86.5 in Jan.); Argentina corn, 35.7 MMT (36.5 in Jan.)

·        May 2017 corn futures on Wed. closed at $3.78 ½--the highest settlement price for the contract since July 13, 2016

·        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 31-43 for 16/17 corn

·        Consultant: Full-season corn harvest in southern Brazil has started; pegged at 6% complete compared to 17% last year

·        Ethanol grind: Record 1,055,000 barrels/day for week end Feb. 3—down 0.6% vs. last week but up 8.9% vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA WASDE 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade est U.S. soybean carryout--16/17, 412 mbu (range of 386-505) and 420 in Jan.

·        USDA WASDE: Avg. est. 16/17 Brazil soybean crop, 104.1 MMT (104.0 in Jan.); Argentina beans, 54.3 MMT (57.0 Jan.)

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 18-29 mbu for 16/17 soybeans; soymeal, 100-300 K MT; soyoil, 5-20 

·        USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess U.S. wheat carryout--16/17, 1.176 bbu (range 1.145-1.211), 1.186 in Jan.

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-18 mbu for 16/17 all wheat

·        T-storm Weather: A strong upper-level system moves across the U.S. southern Plains and Delta within Sun.-Tue.  A low to moderate chance for substantial rain of at least 0.50” persists in HRW wheat areas of the southern Plains

ENERGY

·        Higher:  CLH17, +$0.49 @ $52.83; EBJ, +$0.51; EBH-CLH, $2.80, +$0.02; RBH, +$.0126;NGH, +$0.038; HOH, +$.0202

·        Cash ethanol markets were significantly higher on Wednesday: Chicago gained 4 ¾; New York and Gulf added 3; Dallas increased 4; Tampa climbed a nickel; and LA was a dime higher at $1.77 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs higher on Wed.: 2015’s up 5/8 at 47-48 ¾; 2016’s gained 7/8 to 48 ½-49 ¾; & 2017’s added 1 ¼ to 49-50 

·        The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread lost some of is inverse, off $.0332 to-0.0513/gallon, premium ETOH    

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &n​bsp;                                   

·      &n​bsp; Choice boxed beef values declined 53-cents on Wednesday to $189.43 and $4.32 lower vs. a week ago

·        Cash cattle markets started to develop on Wednesday, with trading noted in the afternoon at $120 in the South

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 11-cents on Wed. to $84.83, and is $2.51 higher vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.74 on Wed. to $72.19.  February futures were up $0.975 & are $1.16 above the index       

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

        



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