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MARKET TREND higher CZ Up 1, SF Up 4, WZ Up 2

November 17, 2016 07:40 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND: higher--CZ: Up $.0125  SF: Up $.0425; WZ: Up $.0275; KWZ: Up $.0150

·        MACRO:  Post U.S. election trades unwinding; focus today will be on Yellen’s remarks as well as initial jobs claims; CPI, housing starts and data from the Philly Fed.  ASIA: Mixed: Nikkei, +0.11%;  Hang Seng, -0.08%.   EUROPE: Mostly higher: FTSE, +0.40%; DAX, -0.21%; CAC, +0.14%.  WALL STREET: Pre-markets are higher: DOW, +13; S&P, +2.25; NASDAQ, +14.50.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.368 @ 100.07; Gold, +$5.70 @ $1,229.60; Dec Crude, +$0.48 @ $46.045

·        T-storm Weather: Despite a few thunderstorms through today, mainly dry weather affects Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay through 7 to 10 days; maximums mostly reach the 70s with minimums in the 50s.  To the north, several cool fronts trigger several heavy thunderstorm clusters in northern areas of Brazil (including ~40% and ~50% of first-crop corn and soybean production) through 10 days, resulting in 3.00" to 6.00" of rain, or approximately twice normal

·        Corn: CZ up $.0125 @ $3.3975; CH up $.01 @ $3.4750.  The funds sold 7 K Wednesday         

·        SB: SF up $.0425 @ $9.90;  SH up $.04 @ $9.9850.  Funds--Sold 3 SB; 2 SBM; and 1 SBO. .  Board Crush: $.59, -$.10; LY, $.74

·        Wheat: WZ up $.0275 @ $3.9975; WH up $.0275 @ $4.170.  Fund selling totaled 3 K at mid-week           

CORN/SORGHUM

·        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 35-47 for 16/17 corn

·        ATI Research: USDA Feed Outlook report estimates 2016/17 U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units at 95.5 million, which is unchanged from last month but 1.7 million (1.8%) higher than last year

·        Consultant: If the weather in southwestern corn production areas of Argentina stays wetter than normal, it is possible that corn acreage could end up below what was anticipated.  For the moment, it is too early to say for sure 

·        Ethanol grind: 1,017,000 barrels/day for week end Nov. 11—up 1.5% vs. last week and 4.3% higher vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 44-55 mbu for 16/17 soybeans; soymeal, 150-350 K MT; soyoil, 10-40 

·        Consultant: Soybean planting in Argentina has experienced a cold, wet and delayed start.  As a result, the estimate of 2016/17 Argentina soybean production has been lowered by 2.0 MMT to 56.0 million

·        T-storm Weather: At least 1 week of dry & cool temps begin Fri. for Argentina soybeans, likely allowing rapid  planting

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-22 mbu for 16/17 all wheat

·        T-storm Weather: A strong system produces a wet mix of wind-driven rain & snow in/near South Dakota & Minnesota tonight & Friday, including some HRW wheat areas.  However, driest HRW wheat in Plains stays mostly dry  

ENERGY

·        Higher:  CLZ16, +$.48 @ $46.05; EBF, +$0.63; EBF-CLF, $0.57, +$0.04; RBZ, +$.0187; NGZ, -$.012; HOZ, +$.0217 

·        Cash ethanol markets were mostly weaker on Wednesday: Chicago off ¼; New York down 1 ¼; Gulf, Tampa and Dallas eased ½; but LA was ½ higher at $1.72 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2015’s down 1 ¾ at 77-80 ½; 2016’s off 2 at 77-80; and 2017’s declined 2 to 76 ¾-79 ¾

·        The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol inverse increased $.0049 on Wednesday to-0.20090/gallon         

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp; 

·        Choice boxed beef was 51-cents lower on Wednesday at $182.60, and is down $1.95 compared to last week

·        Estimates for Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Nov 1 on feed, 98.9%; Oct placements, 95.5%; Marketed in Oct 104.6%

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 4-cents lower on Wed. at $73.56, but is 60-cents higher vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.07 Wed. at $48.31.  December futures $1.90 higher but are $0.285 below the index    

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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