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MARKET TREND Higher CU UP 8, SQ UP 12, WU UP 6

July 14, 2016 07:16 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Higher:  CU: +$.0825; SQ: +$.1225; WU: +$.0550;  KWU: +$.425

·        MACRO: Global stocks move higher, awaiting an expected BOE rate cut by ¼ of a point as a cushion against a possible Brexit-related economic slowdown.ASIA: Shanghai, -.22%; Hang Seng, +1.12%; Nikkei, +.95%. EUROPE: further gains--DAX, +1.40%; FTSE, +.76%; CAC, +.98%.  WALL STREET: Strong opening?  DOW futures up 145; S&P futures, +15 ¾; NAS, +32. OUTSIDE  MARKETS: The $ Index, +.107 @ 96.315;  August Gold, off $14.90 @ $1,328.70 and August crude is $.55 higher @ $45.30.  Deliveries:  SBM, 54; SBO, 181; Corn, 25; HRW, 66; SB, 174; SRW, 33

·        T-storm Weather: A cool front triggers thunderstorms across the southeast third to half of the Corn Belt and Delta today.  The front returns northward as a warm front starting Saturday-Sunday, triggering several areas of thunderstorms.  The end result is that 1.00" to 2.00" of rain results for most corn and soybeans with pockets of higher amounts within the southeast half of the Corn Belt and lower amounts to the north and west

·        Corn: CU Up $.0825 @ $3.7025; CZ Up $.0750 @ $3.7725.  The funds bought 25 K at midweek

·        SB:  SQ Up $.1225 @ $11.3425; SX Up $.1175 @ $11.17. Funds: bot 15 K SB, 8 SBM; sld 2 SBO.  Aug crush, -$.01, $.69; LY: $1.07

·        Wheat:  WU Up $.0550 @ $4.4475; WZ Up $.05 @ $4.68.  The funds bought 4 K Wednesday     

CORN/SORGHUM                                &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;  

·        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 14-22 mbu for 15/16 corn; 18-26 for 16/17

·        T-storm Weather: A strong and large-scale heat wave initiates from southwest to northeast over July 17-20, then fully controls weather later next week and weekend.  Some thunderstorms form along the northeast fringe of heat

·        ATI Research: The 5-year average shows approximately 39% of the U.S. corn crop pollinates from July 17-31

·        Since closing at $3.48 ¼ on July 6, December 2016 corn futures has increased $0.21 ½ (6.0%) the past 5 trading days

·        Ethanol grind: 1,004,000 barrels/day for week end July 8—up 2.0% vs. last week and 2.0% higher vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-22 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; 18-26 for 16/17; soymeal, 40-150 K MT for old- crop and 10-150 new-crop; soyoil, 10-45 K MT for old crop and 5-15 for new-crop 

·        ATI Research: The 5-year average shows approximately 31% of the U.S. soybean crop sets pods from July 17-31

·        Since closing at $10.24 ¾ on July 7, November 2016 soybean futures has risen $0.80 ½ (7.9%) the past 4 trading days

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-22 mbu for 16/17 all wheat

·        T-storm Weather: Cooler-than-normal temps forecast for large percentage of U.S. hard red spring wheat through Sat.

ENERGY

·        Firmer:  CLQ16, +0.55, $45.30; EBU, +$0.57; EBU-CLU, $0.89, +$.06; RBQ, +.0202;  NGQ, -.006; HOQ, +$.0189

·        A mostly firmer trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago up 1 1/8; New York gained ¼; Gulf added 2 1/8; Tampa and Dallas climbed ½; and LA was 1 ¾ lower at $1.73 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were higher: 2014’s up 5/8 at 97-98 ¾; 2015’s added ¾ to 97 ¼-98 ¾; and 2016’s firmed ¾ to 97-98 ½

·        The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol inverse gained $.0547 in Wednesday’s trade, settling at -$.21560/gal                             &nbs​p;    

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                ​                         ​            <​/wbr>

·   ​     Choice boxed beef values were $1.19 lower on Wednesday at $205.19, and are down $3.89 vs. last week

·        Over the past four trading days, choice boxed beef values have declined $4.86 (2.3%) & are the lowest since May 6

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 48-cents higher on Wed. at $89.94 and is $1.03 higher vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $0.60 lower on Wed. at $81.37.  July futures gained $0.225 but are $1.195 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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