HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Higher: CU: up $.0350; SQ: up $.06; WU: up $.0475; KWU: up $.0375
· MACRO: Exurberance over earnings boosts the averages; more results out today—Humana, AIG, Occidental, Telsa just to name a few. ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.47%; Shanghai, -0.20%; Hang Seng,+0.24%. EUROPE: Weaker: DAX, -0.18%; FTSE, -0.30%; CAC, -0.18%. WALL STREET—Futures are higher—DOW,+45; S&P,+2.00; NAS, +47.75. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.071@ 92.830; Aug Gold: -$7.10 @ $1,268; Oct crude: -$.07 @ $49.22/bl. Dely: SBM, 181; SBO, 786; SB, 567
· T-storm Weather: The best chance for rain for U.S. corn, soybeans, and some spring wheat is initially today-Thu., though only scattered 0.25" to 0.75" amounts are expected for most (except for 0.50" to 1.50" in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota). A secondary wave passes this weekend and triggers a couple more thunderstorms, most likely in/near Nebraska and/or the southern half of the Corn Belt. Temperatures will be moderately cooler than normal over the next 10 days across the central U.S.
· CU, up $.0350 @ $3.6650; CZ, up $.0325 @ $3.7975. Big liquidation—funds sold 20 K yesterday
· SU, up $.06 @ $9.7025; SX, up $.0650 @ $9.7825. Funds: Sold 15 SB, 8 SBM, 8 SBO. Board Crush: $.92, +3; LY, $.83
· WU, up $.0475 $4.66; WZ, up $.0475 @ $4.9250. The funds sold 6 K Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· T-storm Weather: The proportion of corn rated "good and excellent" is considerably lower than the national averages in the Dakotas, Kansas, Indiana, & Ohio. Rain would be most ideal in the Plains & Iowa based on rain the last 60 days
· ATI Research: With sales slowing and recent exports averaging less than 39 mbu per week, our bias is for U.S. corn exports over the up-coming 4-week period to be in the mid to lower 30 mbu range.
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is 95.0 MMT; according to AgRural, safrinha (double crop) harvest is 63% complete
· Ethanol margins: $0.21 per gallon—up vs. $0.17 last week but below $0.37 in 2016. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is in the 20-25 mbu/week range
· T-storm Weather: Several waves of energy flow along the edge of coolness for next week (Aug. 7-11) and produce significant rainfall of 0.75”-1.50” within the southeast third to half of U.S. soybeans; dry weather occurs to the north
· Chicago September 2017 wheat futures closed at $4.61 ¼ Tue.—down $1.13 ¼ (20%) from a high of $5.74 ½ on July 5
· Consultant: Freezing temperatures two weeks ago and dry weather have impacted the wheat crop in Parana, Brazil—the largest wheat producing state in the country. Final losses will not be known until the wheat is harvested
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLV17, -$0.07 @ $49.22; EBV, +$0.01 @ $51.79; EBV-QCLV, +.04; RBU, -.0015; NGU, -.004; HOU, +.0032
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -3.1 (+1.8); Gasoline, -0.5 (-4.8); Distillates, -0.4 (-1.2)
· Cash ethanol markets posted additional declines on Tuesday: Chicago off 1 1/8; New York eased 1 ½; Gulf down 1; Dallas fell 3; Tampa slipped 2; and LA was 4 lower at $1.70 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs edged slightly lower on Tuesday: 2016’s and 2017’s eased ½ to 87-89 ½
· The Sep RBOB/Aug ethanol spread gave up $.0375 onTuesdy, slipping to +$.11430/gallon, premium ETOH
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
·   Choice boxed beef values declined 34-cents on Tuesdayto $205.41, and are down $2.21 vs. last week
· Since June 12, choice boxed beef values have fallen $47.11 (19%)
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was $1.11 loweron Tuesday at $97.98, and is down $3.99 vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.40 lower on Tue. at $87.70. August futures fell $0.50 and are $7.90 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DT