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MARKET TREND Higher CU up 1, SU up 7, WU steady

August 17, 2017 07:09 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Higher: CU: up $.01; SU: up $.07; WU: steady; KWU: up $.0050

·       MACRO: U.S. political turmoil/policy uncertainty outweighing lessening North Korean tensions.  ASIA—Mostly weaker: Nikkei, -0.14%; Shanghai, +0.68%; Hang Seng, -0.24. EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -0.15%; FTSE, -0.28%; CAC, -0.16%.   WALL STREET—Futures are weaker—DOW,-14; S&P, -2.50; NAS, -15.00.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index+.317 @ 93.755; Sep Gold+$6.80 @ $1,285 Oct crude: -$.13 @ $46.81/bl.

·        T-storm Weather: A large system rides the edge of warmth through today, producing widespread rainfall in and adjacent the Corn Belt; 0.75” to 1.50” amounts across the northwest half contrast with 0.25” to 0.75” across the southeast half.  A few thunderstorms follow in the Corn Belt and Plains Friday-Saturday when a secondary wave passes, but well-organized rainfall is not expected within a warmer period

·       CU, up $.01 @ $3.5350; CZ, up $.01 @ $3.6750.  Fund selling was estimated at 6 K yesterday              

·       SU, up $.07 @ $9.2875; SX, up $.0775 @ $9.33.  Funds: sold 2 SB, 2 SBM, 0 SBO.  Board crush: $.88, -1; LY, $.84

·       WU, steady @ $4.1925; WZ, steady at $4.47.  The funds sold 6 K on Wednesday                    

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 0-8 mbu for 16/17 corn and 16-28 mbu for 17/18

·       T-storm Weather: Widespread rain is most needed across Iowa and northern Missouri given limited totals in recent weeks and months.  However, rainfall amounts are reduced in Iowa today compared to prior forecasts

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn dough on average increases approximately 15% from Aug. 13-20 to approximately 77%, while  corn dent on average also increases approximately 15% over Aug. 13-20 to approximately 35%

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,059,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 11—up 47 thou v. prior week and 2.9% v. last year 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 2-9 mbu for 16/17 soybeans and 11-22 for 17/18; soymeal, 0-100 K MT for 16/17 and 60-200 for 17/18; soyoil, 8-25 K MT for 16/17 and 0-10 for 17/18 

·       T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms return to U.S. soybeans within Mon.-Wed. when a strong system approaches and passes, ultimately breaking the ongoing/upcoming period of warmth with 0.40"-0.80" most common

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 17/18 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather: Rain affects wheat in Victoria, Australia near term but dry weather continues in/near Queensland and northern New South Wales as heading begins  Argentina wheat is moist

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLV17-$0.13 @ $46.81; EBV-$0.09 @ $50.18;EBV-QCLV+.02; RBU-.0106; NGU-.002; HO​U, -.0107

·       A weaker trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago down 1 3/8; New York off 2 1/8; Gulf eased 1 ½; Tampa fell 4 ¾; Dallas slid 3; and LA was 2 lower at $1.72 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker on Wednesday: 2016’s and 2017’s declined 2 ¾ to 88-91 

·       The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol spread widened $.0043 to+$.0328/gallon, premium RBOB in Wednesday’s trade 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &n​bsp;        

·       Choice boxed beef values were $1.44 lower on Wednesday at $197.51, and are down $4.15 vs. last week

·       Choice boxed beef values are now at their lowest point since Feb. 23

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value plummeted $2.31 on Wed. to $91.17, and is $3.14 lower vs. a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.35 on Wed. to $84.03.  October futures declined $1.75, and are $15.255 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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