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MARKET TREND Higher CU Up 1, SU Up 10, WU Up 3

August 5, 2016 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Higher:  CU: Up $.01; SU: Up $.0950;  WU: Up $.03; KWU: Up $.0125

·        MACRO: Global equity markets are mostly steady to higher, ahead of today’s U.S. July jobs report which is expected to show the economy added 175 K positions and unemployment down .1% to 4.8.   ASIA:  The Nikkei closed unchanged; the Hang Seng rose 1.44% while Shanghai drifted .18% lower. EUROPE:  Firmer at mid-day with the DAX, FTSE up .30-.31% & the CAC .62% higher.  WALL STREET: Futures—DOW, +38; S&P, +5.5; NAS, +11.25.EXTERNALS:  The $ Index is .117 weaker @ 95.600;  August Gold is $.50 higher @  $1,359.30; and Sep crude oil is $.38 lower @ $41.55.  Deliveries:  1 SBM; 514 SBO; 0 SB; 0 ETOH

·        T-storm Weather: Seasonable to cool weather begins today & follows for several days as maximums in the 70s-80s coincide with minimums in the 50s-60s.  The cool front triggers scattered thunderstorms across the northwest two-thirds of corn & soybeans through today with highest coverage & amounts of 0.25” to 0.75” across the northwest half to two-thirds (west of driest areas in Indiana & Ohio).  A tropical circulation produces heavy rain of 1.00” to 2.00” across the central Plains Friday-Sunday

·        Corn: CU Up $.01 @$3.2175; CZ Up $.0075 @ $3.3175.  The funds sold 10 Kon Thursday

·        SB:  SU Up $.0950 @ $9.83  SX Up $.1050 @ $9.6725. Funds: Bot 2 K SB, 3 K SBO, sold 4 K SBM.  Sep crush, -$.01, $.85; LY: $1.23

·        Wheat:  WU Up $.0325 @ $4.0650;  WZ Up $.0175 @ $4.3225.  Fund selling was estimated at 4 K yesterday 

CORN/SORGHUM                       ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;           

·    &​nbsp;   December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.31 Thursday, which is the lowest settlement price for the life of contract

·        ATI Research: There has been a noticeable pick-up in vessel numbers for the Gulf & PNW as world demand shifts from S America to U.S.  The may suggest a rather strong pull on corn, beans & wheat to West Coast for some time to come

·        U.S. old-crop corn export sales for week ending July 28 of 13.0 mbu were within trade range of 12-20, but down 25% from last week 27% below the 4-week avg.  Old-crop sales for the corresponding week last year were minus 224 K bu

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn dent for the week ending Aug. 7 was approx. 7% in 2015 with the 5-year avg. at approx. 11%

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        U.S. old-crop soybean export sales for week end July 28: 19.9 mbu v. trade range of 11-22 & minus 16.4 mbu last year

·        T-storm Weather: Beyond Aug. 12, a few areas of showers and thunderstorms most likely continue as waves of energy continue to flow through the central U.S. despite a seasonably-cooler pattern

·        ATI Research: 5-year avg. show U.S. soybeans blooming up approx. 9% from July 31-Aug. 7; would up ‘16 total to 94%

·        ATI Research: U.S. wheat export sales for week end July 28-12.0 mbu, down 36% v. 4-week avg. & 61% below last year

·        Chicago September 2016 wheat futures closed at $4.03 ¼ Thu.; one year ago, Sept. 2015 contract settled at $5.07

ENERGY

·        Lower:   CLU16, -0.38, $41.55; EBV,-0.45; EBV-CLU, $2.26, -$.10; RBU, -.0135; NGU, -.037; HOU, -$.0182

·        A firmer trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago up 3; New York added 5/8; Gulf gained 3 ¼; Tampa and Dallas increased 2; and LA was 2 higher at $1.54 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s declined 2 ½ to 87 ¼-90 ¾; 2015’s off 2 ½ at 87 ¼-90 ¾; & 2016’s down 2 ½ to 87-90 ½

·        The Sep RBOB/Aug ethanol inverse reversed course slightly, increaseding $.0109 to -$.03600/gal Thursday   

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   ​                  <​/wbr>

·        Choice boxed beef values firmed 6-cents on Thursday to $199.26, and are 50-cents higher vs. last week

·        Dressed steer weight week end July 23: 880 lbs., unchanged v. last week, 871.75 for the 4-week avg. & 884 last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.38 higher on Thu. at $77.46, but is still down $1.88 vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $0.60 lower on Thu. at $71.01.  August futures down $0.65 and are $3.31 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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