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MARKET TREND Higher CN Up 9, SN Up 24, WN Up 4

June 28, 2016 07:12 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Higher  CN: Up $.0750; SN: Up $.24; WN: Up $.05; KWN: Up $.06

·        MACRO: Global equity markets stabilize as Brexit nervousness subsides. ASIA: Mostly higher—the Nikkei edged up .09%; Shanghai finished up .59% while the Hang Seng eased .27%. EUROPE:  Markets rebound with the DAX up 2.11%; the FTSE is 2.45% higher with France’s CAC the lone exception—down 1.86%. WALL STREET: Pre-markets point to a rebound with DOW futures up 188; the S&P is 20 ¼ higher and the NAS is up 44.  OUTSIDE  MARKETS: The $ Index is in retreat, somewhat, off .623 @96.08; gold is down $13 to $1,309 and August crude is up $!.26 @ $7.59

·        T-storm Weather: A cooler pattern begins in earnest today and lasts through the weekend in most areas.  The setup is conducive to heavy thunderstorms in the central Plains through Friday, while scattered showers and a few thunderstorms hold for the northwest half until Thursday-Friday when a cool front passes.  It remains most likely for at least one round of thunderstorms to affect the Delta and southern Corn Belt within Saturday-Monday (July 2-4) with 0.75" to 1.50" amounts most likely

·        CN, Up $.0750 @ $3.9275; CZ, Up$.0675 @ $4.01.  The funds bought 4 K on Monday         

·        SN, Up $.24 @ $11.57; SX, Up $.2325 @ $11.28.   Fund activity: bought 10 K SB; 7 K SBM and 5 K SBO

·        WN, Up $.05 @ $4.5175; WU,Up $.06 @ $4.6425.  The funds began the week selling 5 K

CORN/SORGHUM                   ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;               

·&​nbsp;       USDA pegs nationwide U.S. corn silking at 6% vs. 3% in 2015 and the avg. of 5%.  Good/Excellent crop ratings of 75% are steady with last week but above 68% last year.  Sorghum planting at 95% vs. 91% last year the 93% avg.

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.688 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 1.828 bbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 55 mbu; 16/17 carry-out also pegged at 55 mbu

·        T-storm Weather: Our analyses of computer models suggest that heat should return to at least the Plains and Delta by or before July 8-10.  We are forecasting 0.50" to 1.00" in the central U.S. prior to this setup

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA pegs U.S. soybean blooming as of June 26 at 9% vs. 7% last year and 5-year avg. of 7%.  Good/Excellent crop ratings are 72% compared to 73% last week and 63% in 2015

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 311 mbu due to 55 mbu increase in export forecast; 16/17 carry-out estimated at 243 mbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 184 mbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 182 mbu

·        ATI Research: Updated 2016 U.S. spring wheat production estimate is 471 mbu, which is down 7 million from last week.  Winter wheat: HRW, 929; SRW, 358; and White, 211.  Winter wheat harvest is 45% vs. 41% for the 5-year avg.

ENERGY

·        Higher: CLQ16, +$1.26, $47.59; EBQ, +$1.15; EBQ-CLQ, $0.75,-$.08; RBN, +$.0277;  NGN, +0.052; HON, +$.0315

·        A firmer trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago gained 2 ¼; New York added 1 ¼; Gulf and Dallas up ¾; Tampa steady; and LA was 2 ½ higher at $1.78 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs gained: 2014’s up ½ at 86 ¼-86 ¾; 2015’s firmed ½ to 86 ¼-86 ¾; and 2016’s added ½ to 86-86 ½

·        The July RBOB/July ethanol spread continuen to widen, up $.0572 to -$.1272 on Monday                                 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY       ​              &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;       

​ ·        Choice boxed beef values declined $3.26 on Monday to $2.10, 60, and are $8.97 lower compared to a week ago

·        5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $3.85 v. last week to $116.74/cwt and $32.05 lower vs. last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value down 78-cents on Monday to $87.95, but is still up 77-cents. v. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.20 on Mon. to $84.61.  July futures eased $0.90 and are now $1.46 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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