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MARKET TREND Higher CN Up 4, SN, Up 10, WN, Up 4

May 12, 2016 07:21 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND-Higher: CN Up $.0350; SN, Up $.1025; WN, Up $.0350; KWN, Up $.0225

·        MACRO:  Weak earnings had a negative impact on global equities yesterday—cat bouncing back?.  ASIA:  Shanghia eased .01%; the Hang Seng lost .70% while the Nikkei managed a .41% gain.  EUROPE:  Higher with the FTSE up .33%; the CAC 40 is up .65% and the DAX is .78% to the plus side. U.S. PRE-MARKETS:  Also Higher with DOW futures up 77; the S&P is 11 ¾ higher and the NAS, up 24 ¾. EXTERNALS:  Gold, $7.60 lower @ $1,267; the $ Index is a ¼ point higher @ 94.10 & June WTI is up $.44/bl

·        T-storm Weather: Pockets of rain and thunderstorms will impact the Corn Belt and Delta today.  Following that, a much cooler pattern will develop and remain in place for the next five days.  The Corn Belt will see some rain and thunderstormsFriday and Saturday but the heaviest rains will hold off until Saturday-Sunday, particularly central and south.  The cooler temperatures will dissipate late next week, setting the stage for additional storms as daily highs reach the 80’s on the rain free days. The drought areas of Brazil safrinha corn production regions remain mostly rain free, worsening the dryness.

·        CN, Up $.0350 @ $3.81; CZ, Up $.0350 @ $3.89.  Funds sold 10 K.   Deliveries, 209 Corn  

·        SN, Up $.1025 @ $10.8850; SX, Up $.0975 @ $10.8125.  Funds: Sold 2 K SB; 0 SBM; bot 2 K SBO.  Dely: SBO-90; SB-82

·        WN, Up $.0325 @ $4.6225; WU, Up $.0325 @ $4.7250.  Funds sold 4 KTuesdayDely: 0 HRW; 2 SRW     

CORN/SORGHUM                                &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;  

·        Export Sales  released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 35-47 mbu for 15/16 corn. Past 4 weeks 20 mbu/1.65 X average

·        Forecasted 16/17 U.S. corn use of 14.1 bbu is record high; up 3.9% and requires a 164.4 bpa yield to maintain stocks

·        Wheat feeding . . . USDA sees 16/17 foreign use falling 3.7 MT while overseas stocks jump 6% to 229.4 MMT

·        Argentine corn farmers expected to plant 24%/1.5 million more corn acres this fall; Brazil, about 1% less--USDA

·        Ethanol output:   9262,000 bpd  for week end May 6—up 4 ¼%vs. last week and up 5 ½% from LY

·        Significant draw on ethanol inventories—down 949 K barrels; largest weekly draw since 1.0 mb the week of 3/22/13

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 5-20 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; soymeal, 125-225 K MT; and soyoil, 5-20 K MT

·        Meal sales:  past month at 172 K/MT per week is 73%/73 K MT higher than the long-term average

·        South American Fall 2017 soybean stocks to decline nearly 300 mbu; could boost Sep-Feb U.S. SB exports 150 million

·        Wheat competition strong in the coming year?  4 majors’ output seen 1.1 MMT higher at 224.5 million

·        MAY WASDE:  2 consecutive years of falling global bean stocks:  TY, down 3.8 MMT; 16/17, 6.0 million draw

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 2-6 mbu for 15/16 all wheat and 7-13 mbu for 16/17

ENERGY

·        Mixed: CLM16, +$0.44,  $46.67; EBN, +$.28; EBN-CLM, +$1.21, -$0.16; RBM, +$.0012; NGM, -0.012; HOM, +$.0040

·        Cash ethanol markets were firmer yesterday: Tampa was 3 cents higher; Chicago moved up 1 ¾ to $1.5225; Dallas gained 1 ½ cents to $1.57; the Gulf was up $.0125; NY came in up 1 and LA, up ½ cent to $1.7150

·        Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up 3/8’s to 75-75 ½; 2015’s firmed 1/8 to 74 ¾ 74 ¼ as did 2016’s, 74 ½ -75

·        The June RBOB/May Ethanol spread settled at a $.05250 carry on Wednessday, a $.0938/gallon swing                       

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY&nbs​p;              ​;                         ​;             ​

·        Choice boxed beef values increased $3.01 on Wednesday and are up $8.97 compared to a week ago

·        Cash cattle markets are quiet with bids at $124 vs. offers at $132 to $134 in the South

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was up 47-cents on Wed. at $82.68 and is up $1.38 vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $0.49 higher on Wed. at $75.61.  May futures firmed $0.175 and are $1.265 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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