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MARKET TREND Higher CN, Up 2, CK, Up 3, SN, Up 4,SK, Up 5; WN

May 5, 2016 07:07 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND-Higher: CN, +1 ¼; CK, +2 ¼; SN, +2 ¾; SK, +5; WN, +1/4; WK, +1; KWN, + ¼; KWK, + ¼

·        MACRO:  Equity markets are mostly lower.  ASIA:  Nikkei is still on holiday; Shanghai rose .23% while the Hang Seng lost .37%. osed; Shanghai slipped .05%; the Hang Seng was .73% lower; Australia’s ASX piked up .15%.  EUROPEis mostly weaker—both the FTSE and CAC 40 are .08-.09% lower; the DAX is .15% to the plus side. U.S. PRE-MARKETS:  DOW futures, +52; S&P 500, +6; the NAS, +13.50. EXTERNALS:  Gold, +$3.70 @ $1,77; the $ Index is .425 higher @ 93.71 & June WTI is $1.38 higher(Canada fires)

·        T-storm Weather: Rapid temperature fluctuations occur over the next 10 days in response to a series of atmospheric events, but generally average near to warmer than normal through the period; the cool period that dominated most grains and oilseeds over the last week ends in all areas over the next two days.  The main event of the next week occurs when a large system wobbles through the central U.S. and merges with the jet stream over Sunday-Thursday (May 8-12), producing thunderstorms across much of the central / southern Plains, Corn Belt, and Delta; less to much-less rain occurs to the north

·        CN, Up $.0125 @ $3.78; CK, Up $.0225 @ $3.7550.  The funds sold 6 K at mid-week.   Deliveries, 216 Corn; 34 ETOH 

·        SN, Up $.0275 @ $10.3675; SK, Up $.05 @ $10.2950.  Funds: Bought 4 K SB; 5 K SBM; 2 K SBO.  Dely: SBO-527; SB-691

·        WN, Up $.01 @ $4.72255; WK, Up $.01 @ $4.6150.  Funds were even Wednesday. Dely: 189 HRW; 286 SRW     

CORN/SORGHUM                           ​;                        ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;       

·        <​em>Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 30-43 mbu for 15/16 corn

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn planting progress for week end May 8 was 69% last year, while the 5-year avg. is approx. 50%

·        T-storm Weather: Drought significantly worsens for 55% of Brazil’s winter corn in/near Goias and Mato Grosso over the next two weeks.  Conversely, heavy rains affect Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, including ~30% of production

·        Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate was left unchanged in the latest week at 25.0 MMT, but could edge lower.  Issues related to recent flooding could eventually result in losses in affected areas

·        Ethanol grind: 923,000 barrels/day for week end April 29—down 0.4% vs. last week but 4.1% higher vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-22 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; soymeal, 100-250 K MT; and soyoil, 0-15 K MT

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean planting progress for week end May 8 was 26% last year; the 5-year avg. is approx. 16%

·        T-storm Weather: In the wettest and flooded soybean production areas of Argentina, generally dry and cool surface-level high pressure dominates for at least 10 days

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 0-11 mbu for 15/16 all wheat and 7-15 mbu for 16/17

·        T-storm Weather: Most of the U.S. spring wheat belt is unlikely to be impacted by rainfall from May 8-12

ENERGY

·        Higher: CLM16, +$1.38,  $45.16; EBN, +$.86; EBN-CLM, +$0.45, -$0.39; RBM, +$.0134; NGM, +0.012; HOM, +$.0239

·        Cash ethanol markets were steady to weaker on Wednesday: Chicago and New York eased ¾; Gulf down ½; Tampa and Dallas were steady; and LA was ½ lower at $1.68 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up ½ to 74 ½-75; 2015’s firmed 3/8 to 74 ¼-74 ¾; and 2016’s added ½ to 73 ¾-74 ¼

·        The June RBOB/June Ethanol spread inverted further, .0054 to -$.0084/gallon on Wednesday                         

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   ​;                  ​

·        Choice boxed beef values were $1.20 lower on Wednesday, and at $204.74 are down $10.07 vs. last week

·        The cash cattle market was untested on Wednesday, with bids of $120 noted in the North

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was down 36-cents on Wed. at $81.30 and is unchanged vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $0.87 higher on Wed. at $72.64.  May futures eased $1.10 but are $4.735 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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