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MARKET TREND Higher CN Up 1, SN Up 7, WN Up 1

May 20, 2016 07:15 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND-Higher:   CN: Up $.0125; SN: Up $.0725; WN: Up $.0150 KWN: Up $.0350

·         MACRO:  Higher oil prices are lifting global equity markets this morning. ASIA:  Closed higher with gains of .54% for the Nikkei; Shanghai was up .68% and the Hang Seng, +.80%.  EUROPE: Firmer as well with the DAX up .91%; the CAC 40, +1.15% and the FTSE, +1.35%.   WALL STREET:  Pre-markets point to a positive start with DOW futures up 45; S&P, +4.50 and the NAS,  +13.75.  EXTERNALS: The $ Index is off .044 @ 95.30; Gold is up $3.30 @ $1,259.40 and June WTI is $.08 higher @ $48.24

·         T-storm Weather: Coolness continues through today, then breaks from west to east over Sat.-Tue.  Except for some rain in southern areas through today, most areas stay dry into at least Sunday.  Drying breaks Sun.-Mon. across the western third to half of U.S. corn & soybeans, including wettest areas of / near Nebraska.  Scattered thunderstorms then form further into the Corn Belt Tue.-Wed. with the main overall rain event around Wed.-Sat. when as the crawling system gradually exits.  The end result is that widespread rain of 1.00"-2.00" is expected over May 22-28 with higher totals most likely in western corn & soybean areas

·         CN, Up $.0150 @ $3.9150; CZ, Up $.01 @ $3.9825.  Heavy liquidatation with the funds selling 25 K

·         SN, Up $.0725 @ $10.7875; SX, Up $.0225 @ $10.5575.  Funds:  sold 5 K SB;   bought 8 K SBM and sold 10 K SBO

·         WN, Up $.0125@ $4.70; WU, Up $.0150 @ $4.99.  The funds sold 8 K on Thursday

CORN/SORGHUM                                     &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;         

·    &​nbsp;    December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.97 ¼ Thu.—one year ago, the December 2015 contract settled at $3.82 ¼

·         ATI Research: U.S. old-crop corn export sales for week ending May 12 of 58.0 mbu were well above the trade range of 35-51.  The four-week sales average of 54.2 mbu is the largest for this time of year since 54.8 million was sold in 1990

·         ATI Research: U.S. sorghum export sales week end May 12 of 2.0 mbu were one-half of the year ago total of 4.0

·         T-storm Weather: Drought for northern 60% of Brazil safrinha (double crop) corn worsens for the foreseeable future; e.g. most areas receive less to much-less than 0.50” of rain the next 10-14 days while temps reach mid-80s to mid-90s

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         November 2016 soybean futures closed at $10.53 ½ Thu.—one year ago, November 2015 contract settled at $9.18 ½

·         ATI Research: U.S. old-crop soybean export sales for week end May 12 of 20.4 mbu were well above trade range of 11-18.  The four-week sales average of 16.6 mbu is the largest for this time of year since 23.9 million was sold in 2012

·         ATI Research: U.S. old-crop wheat export sales for week end May 12 of 6.4 mbu were within trade range of 0-9.  The four-week sales average of 9.2 mbu is the largest for this time of year since 10.9 million was sold in 2012

·         T-storm Weather: Near- to above-normal rain for U.S. HRW wheat May 22-28; heaviest across eastern 2/3’s of Kansas   

ENERGY

·         Mixed: CLM16, +$0.08,  $48.24; EBN, +$0.01; EBN-CLM, +$0.67, +$0.02; RBM, -$.0152; NGM, -0.006; HOM, -$.0047

·         A mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago declined 1 ½; New York off 1; Gulf down ¾; Tampa and Dallas gained 1; but LA was 1 ½ lower $1.74 per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs firmer again: 2014’s added 2 ½ at 80-84; 2015’s up 2 ½ to 80-84; and 2016’s increased 2 ¾ to 79 ½-84

·         The June RBOB/June spread widened slightly, $.007 to +$.03690/gallon on Thursday                           

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY           &nbs​p;         ​;                        ​                         ​          <​/wbr>

·         Choice boxed beef values were 60-cents lower on Thursday, but at $227.16 are still $12.70 higher vs. last week  

·         Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: May 1 on feed, 100.1%; Apr placements, 98.6%; Marketed in Apr 101.6%

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 55-cents lower Thursday at $82.32, and 15-cents lower v. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index $0.64 higher Thu. at $78.43.  June futures were down $0.80 but are still $1.995 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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