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MARKET TREND Higher CN Down 3, SN Down 11, WN Down 5

May 23, 2016 07:36 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND-Higher:   CN: Down $.0325; SN: Down $.1125; WN: Down $.05; KWN: Downp $.0350

·        MACRO:  A weekend meeting among G-7 leaders concluded with no real policy direction and stocks are listless.  ASIA: Mixed with the Shanghai up .66%; the Nikkei lost .49% and the Hang Seng, -.22%.  EUROPE:  Weaker—the FTSE is .28% lower; the DAX is down .72% and the CAC 40, -.90%.  WALL STREET:  Pre-markets in the red with DOW futures off 28; the S&P is 3 ½ lower and the NAS, down 5 ¾.  EXTERNALS: The $ Index is .017 higher @ 95.40; Gold is $1.10 cheaper, $1,253.30;  July WTI is $.60 lower

·        T-storm Weather: Temperatures remain mild to unseasonably-mild through at least 10 days; maximums generally reach the 70s-80s, while minimums stay in the 50s-60s.  The western half of the Corn Belt and eastern Plains turn wetter today.  Conversely, the Delta and southeast half of the Corn Belt stay dry throughTuesday.  Thunderstorm coverage then increases and affects most of the central U.S. from Wednesday forward.  Although the exact setup cannot be assessed, it is likely for heavy rainfall of 1.25-2.75” to affect most corn, soybean and wheat areas over the next week; best potential for higher totals in the western Corn Belt

·        CN, Down $.0325 @ $3.9125; CZ, Down $.0325 @ $3.9650.  The funds bought 6 K on Friday

·        SN, Down $.1125 @ $10.63; SX, Down $.1250 @ $10.37.  Funds:  bought 5 K SB; 5 K SBM and sold 6 K SBO

·        WN, Down $.05 @ $4.62590;  WU, Down $.05 @ $4.7475.  The funds ended the trading day Friday even 

CORN/SORGHUM                             &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                                                 ​;                        ​     

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 45.6 needed; 43.7 last week.  Milo—2.7 needed; 3.5 last week

·        USDA Crop Progress report (release at 3:00 PM CDT) could show U.S. corn planting as of May 22 at 85%, which is equal to the 5-year average but below 90% last year

·        T-storm Weather: A few thunderstorms dot southern areas of Goias and Mato Grosso near-term, but drought further worsens for northern 60% of Brazil safrinha(double crop) corn.  Temp maximums reach the 80s-90s on most days

·        Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 9,546 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 10.4 needed; 7.2 last week

·        USDA Crop Progress report could show U.S. soybean planting as of May 22 at 50%, which is equal to the 5-year average but below last year’s 56%

·        Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions decrease 13,375 contracts

·        T-storm Weather: It is most probable for warmer-than-normal temps to continue for U.S. HRW wheat May 30-June 4

·        USDA Crop Progress report could show U.S. winter wheat Good/Excellent crop ratings near unchanged from last week

ENERGY

·        Lower:  CLN16, -$0.60, $47.80; EBN, -$0.58; EBN-CLN, +$0.34, +$0.03; RBM, -$.0140; NGM, +0.051; HOM, -$.0086

·        Cash ethanol markets were mixed once again on Friday: Chicago up ¼; New York unchanged; Gulf gained 1; Tampa and Dallas eased ½; and LA was unchanged at $1.74 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2014’s off 2 ½ at 78 ¾-80 ¼; 2015’s down 2 ½ to 78 ¾-80 ¼; & 2016’s eased 2 ½ to 78 ½-80

·        The June RBOB/June spread narrowed $.0073 on Friday to +$.02960/gallon                          

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY      ​;              ​                        &​nbsp;        

·        Choice boxed beef values declined $1.20 on Friday, but at $225.96 are still up $7.40 compared to a week ago 

·        Cattle on Feed: May 1 on feed, 101.3% (100.1% avg est); Apr place, 107.5% (98.6%); Apr Marketed, 101.2% (101.6%)

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 52-cents on Friday to $82.84, and is $1.13 higher vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index up $0.38 Fri. to $78.81.  June futures were $0.575 lower but are still $1.04 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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