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MARKET TREND Higher CK, up 2, SK, up 9, WK, up 1

April 13, 2017 07:26 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Higher: CK, up $.0175; SK, up $.10; WK, up $.0175; KWK, up $.0150

·        MACRO—Which way is the wind blowing today? White House says the $ is too strong. Data releases include jobless claims, PPI and consumer sentiment.  ASIA—Mostly lower:   Nikkei, -0.68%; Shanghai, +0.07%; Hang Seng, -0.21%.  EUROPE—Lower:  DAX, -0.35%; FTSE, -0.56%; CAC, -0.56%.   Wall STREET-Futures are definitely lower:  DOW, -48; S&P, -6.75; NAS, -11.00.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, -0.526 @ 100.015 ; April Gold, +$11.00 @ $1,286; May Crude, -$0.05 @ $53.06 

·        T-storm Weather: Pockets of rain and thunderstorms affect the U.S. central / southern Plains and northwest half to two-thirds of the Corn Belt through Saturday, then more of the Corn Belt Sunday.  A stormier period follows from Mon.-Tue. forward across a larger area as the main storm track shifts southward and better-interacts with influxes of tropical humidity.  A sharply wetter period affects southern Brazil, Paraguay, and far-northern growing areas of Brazil from next week forward

·        Corn: CK up $.0175 @ $3.7075; CN up $.0175 @ $3.7775.  Funds followed up the April WASDE, buying 5 K     

·        SB: up $.10 @ $9.5775; SN Up $.1025 @ $9.69.  Funds: bot 4 SB, 5 SBM, & 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $.84, +1; LY; $.62

·        Wheat: WK up $.0175 @ $4.35; WN up $.0175 @ $4.48.  The funds bought 2 K Wednesday  

CORN/SORGHUM

·        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 31-43 for 16/17 corn

·        T-storm Weather: Based on where it did not rain the last 7 days & the forecast, best conditions for corn planting are likely in northern Plains until Mon., & across Delta until thunderstorms return Sun.-Mon. (and/or shortly thereafter)

·        Ethanol grind: Total of 986,000 barrels/day for week end April 7—down 33 thou v. last week but up 5.1% v. last year

·        Consultant: Argentina corn crop estimate is unchanged this week at 37.0 MMT.  The recent flooding and chances of additional flooding have increased concerns surrounding un-harvested corn in western and northern areas  

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-22 mbu for 16/17 soybeans; soymeal, 50-250 K MT; soyoil, 8-20 

·        Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is steady at 56.0 MMT.  Recent flooding will reduce harvested area.  In areas where the crop is mature or close to maturity, saturated conditions could also result in lost yield & poor seed quality

·        T-storm Weather: Wettest soybean growing areas of Argentina stay dry and cool through 10 days, except far north

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for 16/17 all wheat

·        T-storm Weather: Rainfall wil be limited in northern areas of the U.S. Plains for one week, allowing spring wheat planting to advance

ENERGY

·        Weaker: CLK17, -$0.05 @ $53.06; EBM, 0.00 @ $56.86; EBM-QCLM, +.06; RBK,-$.0062; NGK, -$0.029; HOK, -$.0003

·        A firmer trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago and Gulf increased 1 ¾; New York added ½;  Dallas gained 2 ½; Tampa climbed 3; and LA was ¼ higher at $1.82 ¼ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were steady on Wednesday: 2016’s unchanged at 54 ½-55; and 2017’s unchanged at 54 ½-55 ½

·        The May RBOB/May ethanol spread lost $.0380 as corn rallied, down to +$.0690/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                          &nbs​p;         

·       &nbs​p;Choice boxed beef values were 76-cents higher on Wed. at $210.13, and are up 42-cents compared to last week

·        May feeder cattle futures on Wednesday posted a new contract high for the 3rd consecutive day, closing at $137.825

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass was 26-cents lower on Wednesdayat $74.31, and is down 3-cents vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.49 on Wed. to $64.16.  April futures were $0.425 lower and are $1.935 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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